Latics must be opposed at odds-on prices

England - Premier League

Jaymes Monte looks through the Opta stats and this weekend's 3pm Premier League kick-offs to pick out his best bets...


Arsenal 1.26 v Reading 14.5; The Draw 7.0


Question: Should Arsenal be as short as 1.26 to beat any team in the Premier League given the season they've had? Answer: Yes. Reading.

Regardless of the impact a new manager might have, The Royals cannot be sided with at seemingly appealing odds. Arsenal have won all 11 of their previous competitive  meetings with Reading, including two wins already this season, while Reading have conceded more Premier League goals against Arsenal (16) than versus any other  opponent in the competition.


Interestingly, if only the second half of Premier League games counted this season, Arsenal would be top of the league by four points. If games ended at half-time,  though, they'd be 12th in the table. Back the Gunners to get the three points after some initial resistance from Nigel Adkins' side.


Best Bet: Draw/Arsenal @ 5.2 in HT/FT



Man City 1.34 v Newcastle 11.5; The Draw 5.7


Despite the huge chasm that has developed between the two Manchester clubs in the Premier League table this season, City's home form has remained solid.


Furthermore, City have won 10 and drawn two of their last 12 Premier League matches against the Magpies and will be looking for their seventh successive PL victory  over them in this game. Leaving us little reason to oppose the hosts at 1.34.


Yaya Touré has scored three of City's last five Premier League goals against Newcastle while Carlos Tevez has scored four goals in his last six Premier League  appearances against the Geordies. The Ivorian can be backed at 2.7 and the Argentine at 1.94 to net anytime this weekend.


Best Bet: Back Toure to score anytime @ 2.7



Southampton 3.9 v Chelsea 2.14; The Draw 3.65


Having beaten Manchester City and Liverpool at St Mary's in recent weeks the visit of Chelsea will generate little apprehension for Southampton. However, their recent  record of no wins in seven (L4 D3) against the Blues will be a cause for concern.


The 2.14 on an away win looks too short given Saints' recent results and performances against the league's bigger clubs, but their record against Chelsea means the home win doesn't carry much appeal either.


Instead we should opt for a bet on the Half With Most Goals market. Chelsea have conceded a league-high proportion (70%) of their goals in the second half of matches  this season, while their tally of goals conceded in the first half (9) is a Premier League low.


Best Bet: Back 2nd Half @ 2.0 in Half With Most Goals



Swansea 3.45 v Tottenham 2.32; The Draw 3.5


With Spurs' grip on a top-four spot loosening with each passing fixture three points is a necessity this weekend. Fortunately for Andre Villas-Boas' men, they do have  a good record against Swansea having won three and drawn one of the last four meetings.


The Swans have not won any of the 16 Premier League games that they have fallen behind in this season (D6 L10), so the first goal here will be crucial. However, with  Spurs at odds of 1.8 to break the deadlock, preference goes to the 2.32 on an away win in the Match Odds betting.


Best Bet: Back Spurs to win @ 2.32



West Ham 2.34 v West Brom 3.5; The Draw 3.45


The last four Premier League meetings between these two sides have ended in a draw and there's every chance that could be extended to five this weekend.


Having played a game fewer than most of those around them in the table West Ham are reasonably safe from relegation, while West Brom's season is effectively over with  neither relegation nor European qualification a realistic possibility.


Best Bet: Back the Draw @ 3.45



Wigan 1.98 v Norwich 4.2; The Draw 3.75


Question: Should Wigan ever be made odds-on to win any Premier League game against any opposition? Answer: No.


The Latics are traversing an upward form trend, but I cannot justify an odds-on price about any team currently occupying a spot in the relegation zone. Throw into the  mix the Opta stat that Wigan have never defeated Norwich in the Premier League and we simply have to take the hosts on here.


No side has won fewer points at home in the Premier League this season than Wigan Athletic, while they have conceded the first goal of the game on 18 occasions this  season (a joint league-high) and have won just one of these matches (D2 L15).


Best Bet: Lay Wigan to win @ 1.98


(Source: Betfair)




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