Against All Odds: Las Palmas and Almeria to open up in Play-off first leg

12Jun 2013

Betfair

Las Palmas take on Almeria in the Spanish Segunda Division Play-offs tonight and despite it being the first leg, Paul Robinson thinks there is plenty of value in thinking that there will be goals.

America MG were 1-0 down at half time last night but they turned it round to win 2-1 and give us our sixth winner in a row - the eighth from the last nine selections for a profit of 8.64pts after commission.

Las Palmas finished the regular season in sixth place thanks to goals scored. After looking like Play-off certainties at one stage they limped over the line with just two wins from their last seven matches. That doesn't bode too well for them going into this tie as it's hard to just turn form around and they will definitely need to work on their offensive play.

Sergio Lobera's side have netted just two goals in 450 minutes of football and that is somewhat surprising given that they were quite proficient throughout the campaign. The manager will also be aware of the fact that they had a bit of an iffy away record during the regular season so getting a lead this evening is vital.

Almeria finished third in the table, missing out on automatic promotion by just three points. They had the chance to finish second but they failed to beat Villarreal on the final day so promotion will have to be achieved the hard way.

As far as the goals go, Javi Gracia's men outscored both of the two teams who finished above them in the league, and overall their matches averaged 2.79 goals each time. Their final three away scorelines were 3-5, 0-3 and 1-0, and the last three results between this pair were 2-3, 1-2 and 2-2.

It is usually wise to tread with caution when getting involved in goal markets for the first match of two-legged ties, but there are plenty of reasons to believe we could see at least three tonight. That's why, with under 2.5 goals so short at around the 1.79 mark, I have to make it my lay of the day.