Amir Khan v Carlos Molina: Back-to-laying the outsider a shoe-in to profit

14Dec 2012

Ralph Ellis looks ahead to Amir Khan's comeback fight against unknown Carlos Molina on Sunday morning, and our man believes a previously used betting strategy is the way to banking a profit...

Carlos Molina designs shoes. Beautiful, stylish footwear for ladies - my wife especially liked the look of the Panther range of boots. The brand values are fire hot colours, sexy arches, classic design.

 

I know all this after settling down to do some research on Amir Khan's opponent when Bolton's big star tries to put his career back on track in Los Angeles in the early hours of Sunday morning.

 

Google Molina, and the guy with the same name who designs shoes is fourth on the page. And when a shoe designer from Ecuador with the same name is up there alongside the boxer, it means you actually know nothing about the bloke who is getting in the ring.

 

Frankly that's what would worry me most about backing Khan at odds as short as 1.1 for the victory he needs to put himself back on the upward path. There's an old adage that if something is too good to be true, it probably isn't true.

 

The real Molina, the one who is getting into the ring, is a 27-year-old from LA who is undefeated in 17 fights as a lightweight and sees this as his chance to break through into the big time.

 

He's won only seven of those fights inside the distance however, so there's no evidence he has the punching power to catch out Khan with one big shot. In short he looks like a carefully selected opponent, one whose record gives him enough prestige to make a victory count when you're selecting the fight that follows.

 

But as we saw when Ricky Hatton's comeback went so disastrously wrong, it doesn't always pan out that way. And some of what Khan has been saying as Fleet Street's boxing writers arrive in LA makes me all the more cautious.

 

He's talking about how new trainer Virgil Hunter is changing his approach. "The old Amir Khan has gone out of the window," he says. The plan is to be more cautious, to concentrate on improving the defensive side of his game, to stop relying on gung-ho attacks and the lightening hand speed of his punching but instead to plot his way through a fight and not leave himself open.

 

There's little doubt that is what Khan needs to do for the good of his career, but as we all know, change takes time. And to imagine that he'll be able to switch from one very aggressive mode of fighting into another more considered style in his first bout and after just a few weeks of working with Hunter is extremely optimistic.

 

There's a danger he'll either be hit by a rush of adrenalin once he's in the ring and leave himself open to a counter, or will end up plodding through all 12 rounds without ever producing a big shot of his own. If that happens then the early market indications of a price up to 11.0 for the fight to go the distance is more than attractive.

 

It makes me think the value is in a back to lay bet on Molina. That strategy worked a treat for us supporting Mariusz Wach against Wladimir Klitschko and then the equally unknown Vyacheslav Senchenko against Hatton, and it looks the best bet again this time.

 

Who knows, I might even be able to buy Mrs Ellis a new pair of shoes from the proceeds!

 

Bet HERE !

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Keywords: Khan, Molina

Source: Betfair

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