ATP Internazionali BNL d'Italia Betting: Lucky loser Rosol to outclass struggling Troicki

14May 2013

ATP Masters 1000


The big names begin their 2013 Internazionali BNL d'Italia campaigns today, but Sean Calvert thinks the value lies elsewhere and fancies Lukas Rosol to make the most  of his lucky loser role today..


Things didn't go quite to plan on Monday at the 2013 Internazionali BNL d'Italia when a fairly awful performance from Paulo Lorenzi allowed Kei Nishikori too much of  an easy ride in the late night match.


In front of a virtually empty Centrale Court at around midnight local time Kei saved all seven of the break point chances against him and didn't have to work too hard against a lacklustre Lorenzi, who unforgivably failed to make any returns against a clearly injured opponent.


Nishikori had a medical time out due to a hip problem and with his history of retiring and withdrawing he's one to back against as favourite in the next round.


Tuesday sees the big guns enter the fray at the Foro Italico and Novak Djokovic, Roger Federer, Juan Martin Del Potro and Tomas Berdych all have what appear to be fairly straightforward opening matches today.


Federer doesn't have the best of records here and may be vulnerable, but surely Potito Starace isn't the man to take advantage even in front of his home crowd. He'll certainly need more support than was available for Lorenzi last night.


There are a few that I'm interested in today and it's certainly worth another cheeky lay of Nicolas Almagro at 1.22 today against Julien Benneteau. We profited last week from Nico's hip injury when laying him against Mikhail Youzhny and by all accounts he's no better this week, which makes the 1.22 a great starting point for a lay-to-back or outright lay.


I actually was under the impression that he'd withdrawn from the tournament yesterday, but if he does take to the court it's worth a small risk that he won't complete today or get beaten.


The lucky loser that was set to play Almagro, but now gets Viktor Troicki after Janko Tipsarevic pulled out is Lukas Rosol and what a great draw this is for the Czech after he destroyed Troicki on slow clay in Bucharest during his title winning run there a few weeks ago.


Rosol lost in qualifying here to Andrey Kuznetsov, but there may well have been an element of Lukas knowing he was already in the draw as a lucky loser, so I'm not putting too much value on that result.


Having won three of his four matches against Troicki and all three played on clay the price on another Rosol win of around 1.71 looks worth taking when this match begins at around 11.30am UK time today.


The match of the day is surely Grigor Dimitrov versus Richard Gasquet and that one is well worth watching, but as a betting medium there are too many variables for me to get involved in what is essentially a pick 'em match.


I would say that Gasquet is a touch short at 1.73 and I'd probably wait for bigger before betting on the Frenchman today. I have him outright at a silly price, which is enough for me in that one.


Recommended Bets

Back Rosol to beat Troicki at 1.71

Lay or lay-to-back Almagro to beat Benneteau at 1.22



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Keywords: ATP Internazionali BNL Italia, Rosol, Troicki

Source: Betfair

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