ATP Mutua Madrid Masters Betting: Nadal to cut Paire's birthday celebrations short

8May 2013

ATP Masters 1000


Rafa Nadal makes his entrance to the 2013 Mutua Madrid Masters today against Benoit Paire and tennis expert Sean Calvert has unearthed some potential value in this second round encounter..


I said yesterday that Florian Mayer is an unpredictable talent and I probably should have added the same about Andy Murray, who grimaced, groaned and creaked his way to a narrow win in Madrid on Tuesday.


Murray was at his passive worst against the mentally fragile German, who blew at least five set points in the opener before taking advantage of a seriously below par Murray to force another tie break, which he also lost.


I also mentioned on Tuesday that Novak Djokovic faced a tricky match against Grigor Dimitrov and that a lay of Djokovic 2-0 at 1.3 was worth a look and so it proved, as the young Bulgarian not only took a set but stunned the world number one in a dramatic second round match at a partisan Magic Box last night.


The defeat for Djokovic could be great news for those who followed my advice of backing 67.0 long shot Tomas Berdych, who now has a great chance to take advantage of the hole in the top half of the draw.


Wednesday's play at La Caja Magica sees birthday boy Benoit Paire take on Rafa Nadal and two more contrasting attitudes to the game one could not wish to see, as the languid Paire, who spent most of his on court time in Oeiras shuffling around in a hoodie, taking on the brooding intensity of Nadal.


These conditions don't really suit Rafa's game despite it being clay, but I can't part with a single penny on Paire in any circumstances let alone against Rafa.


The +6.5 games is tempting on the handicap, but Paire tends to give up way too easily and the second set handicap market of minus 3.5 games on Nadal looks a good bet in that one.


In his last five losses, Paire has chucked in the deciding set by scores of 6-4, 6-2, 6-1, 6-0 and 6-2 and I can't imagine him wanting to hang around long on his birthday if he's getting a hammering.


Nadal will be buoyed by Djokovic's defeat and I doubt that he'll allow Paire to get as close as he did when they met at the crack of dawn in Barcelona a few weeks ago in a match rescheduled due to rain.


Rafa will be odds-against for this and it's well worth taking against someone with the mentality of Paire.


Elsewhere, there are reports of Nico Almagro struggling with a hip injury ahead of his clash with Mikhail Youzhny and that being the case, it's worth a cheeky lay of Nico 2-0 at around 1.80 against an opponent he's never beaten in four attempts.


This clash of the stylish one-handed backhands could have been close anyway, with Youzhny boosted by his remarkable win over Fabio Fognini yesterday in which the Italian choked from 1.01, so if Nico is less than 100% the odds are in our favour in that one.


Recommended Bets

Back Nadal -3.5 games in set two vs Paire at 2.10

Lay Almagro 2-0 vs Youzhny at 1.80



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Keywords: ATP Mutua Madrid Masters, Nadal, Paire

Source: Betfair

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