Barcelona v Paris St Germain: Tito's men too strong for French

 

Barcelona have a good record of winning Champions League ties after first-leg draws, and Tobias Gourlay expects them to end Gallic interest in this year's competition

 

Wednesday 19:45

Camp Nou (Live on Sky Sports 2)

Barcelona 1.4 PSG 9.6 draw 5.5

 

Match Odds

 

Barcelona, who are 1.15 to confirm a sixth consecutive semi-final appearance, are W16-D4-L0 at the Camp Nou since losing a group-stage game to Rubin Kazan in 2009.

 

In the last decade home teams have a winning record after first-leg draws in the Champions League (W6-D1-L4) and that's in large part due to Barcelona themselves, who  have seen off Arsenal, Benfica and Milan from positions similar to this one.

 

Leo Messi's participation is unconfirmed at the time of writing. He's a tenacious chap and there are few examples of Barca playing without him in recent seasons. There  was the game with Benfica in December, when he started on the bench, but Pique, Busquets, Xavi and Iniesta missed that one too and the 0-0 result is probably not  relevant here.

 

PSG might be without a star player of their own: doubt surrounds Joey Barton's sparring partner Thiago Silva.

 

Blaise Matuidi is definitely suspended - and will definitely be missed - which raises the prospect of another start for David Beckham. The Englishman can launch PSG's  counter-attacks, but could easily be outrun - and overrun - by even spry youngsters like Xavi.

 

Without Matuidi, it's Barca blazing a trail for the last four.

 

Over/Under Goals

 

Quarter-final second legs tend to produce more goals than their first legs, as you might expect, but they don't always get over the line: 19/35 have gone Over 2.5  Goals, which is a 1.55 favourite this time.

 

Eight of the last ten knockout-stage games at the Camp Nou have turned up four goals or more, so we'd focus on the 2.4 available for Over 3.5 Goals.

 

Both Teams to Score?

 

PSG have scored twice in each of their last three on the road: against Zagreb, Kiev and Valencia. Both teams have scored in all three of their knockout-stage games so  far.

 

With Beckham to set them going, Moura and Pastore to drive them forward, and Ibrahimovic and Lavezzi to finish them off (maybe), Ancelotti's team can be dangerous on  the counter-attack.

 

And Barcelona's defence is more porous under Tito Vilanova than it was under Pep Guardiola, keeping clean sheets in 15/49 games in all competitions this season (8/24  at the Camp Nou).

 

Defensive results have been better of late - Deportivo, Milan and Mallorca all shut out at home - but PSG have some rare attacking talents, an urgent need for a goal  and Barca, who will have an inexperienced centre-back alongside Pique, are still giving up chances.

 

Barcelona To Score in Both Halves

 

With Dani Alves charging at his rickety old team-mate Maxwell on PSG's left flank from the first whistle, an odds-against price about Barcelona scoring before and  after half-time makes some appeal.

 

The Spanish league leaders hit four before the break without Messi on Saturday and, while Fabregas' re-integration has not been as smooth as many expected, he can  capitalise on opportunities presented by Alves.

 

Barca have scored in both halves of 11/15 Liga home games this season and 8/11 Champions League knock-out home games.

 

Best Bet

Back Both Teams to Score @ 1.85

 

Recommended Bets

Back Barcelona To Score in Both Halves @ 2.1

Back Over 3.5 Goals @ 2.4

 

Bet HERE

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