Champions League: Back goals at Malaga and on-form Yilmaz to score in Madrid

2Apr 2013

Bajnokok Ligája

James Horncastle can see goals in the Malaga-Dortmund game and Galatasaray's Burak Yilmaz to find the net at the Bernabeu...

In the Galatasaray museum on Istiklal Caddesi in Istanbul there's a pair of black Lotto football boots. They belonged to Mario Jardel and were the ones he wore on the night in Monaco in August 2000 when he scored twice for the club in a 2-1 win over a Real Madrid side including Iker Casillas, Claude Makelele, Luis Figo and Raul in the European Super Cup.

Along with their triumph in the UEFA Cup final against Arsenal earlier that year, it ranks as arguably Galatasaray's most famous and celebrated victory. Running it close, though, is another performance against Real Madrid in the first leg of their Champions League quarter-final in 2001.

Two-nil down at the Ali Sami Yen, Galatasaray came back to win 3-2 with goals from Umit Davala, Hasan Sas and that man Jardel. Ultimately, they'd lose the second leg at the Bernabeu 3-0 and were knocked out, but that generation of players could at least hold onto the memory that in three encounters with Real, they'd won two and lost one; a proud record indeed.

This is Galatasaray's first appearance in the Champions League quarter-finals since then. The question is: are they better placed to progress against Real than they were 12 years ago?

Though undefeated in their last six Champions League matches and heading to Spain with the confidence you'd expect of a team that has won on their last three trips on the road in the competition, the market doesn't expect there to be a surprise.

Galatasaray are 19.0 to win and 9.0 just to draw at the Bernabeu where, lest we forget, Real have been held by Borussia Dortmund and Manchester United this season. Even with the additions in January of Wesley Sneijder and Didier Drogba, both of whom of course worked under Real coach Jose Mourinho at Inter and Chelsea respectively, Galatasaray aren't fancied.

A lot of that is down to the perceived weakness of their defence, in particular the left-back position where former Liverpool winger Albert Riera has been deployed. In the expectation that Mourinho identified that as Galatasaray's Achilles heel on a scouting mission to watch them play Kayserispor, expect Cristiano Ronaldo to 'bully' Riera and add to his goals tally.

He is 2.12 to finish the competition as top scorer and will get opportunities. But then so will Burak Yilmaz, the Galatasaray striker who, like Ronaldo, has found the net eight times in the Champions League this season.

Real have failed to keep a clean sheet in the competition this term. Back Yilmaz to score an away goal at around 5.0 and, if you subscribe, as the Italians do, to the immutable law of the ex, why not go for Sneijder to find the net against his former club and manager at around 7.5 or Hamit Altintop to do the same at 10.0.

Over on the Costa del Sol, Malaga's remarkable debut Champions League campaign continues at home to Dortmund.

"Whichever way it goes, there'll be a team in the semi-finals that can be considered a surprise," Dortmund coach Jurgen Klopp said.

It would be more of one of course if it were Malaga. They are 3.7 to qualify, a good price for a team that is undefeated in nine of their last 10 Champions League matches including qualifiers. Their record at home in the competition this season is won three, drawn one, and they've kept three clean sheets.

You get the impression, however, that there will be goals in the first leg at the Rosaleda. For Malaga, there's encouragement for their forwards to find in the news that Dortmund left-back Marcel Schmelzer might not be able to play because of a broken nose suffered at the weekend and left centre-back Mats Hummels is out with an ankle knock.

As for Dortmund, who are the only team left in the competition along with Juventus yet to suffer a defeat, well they have never failed to score in the Champions League this season. Marco Reus has found the net three times on their travels. Back him to score at around 5.5. Striker Robert Lewandowski is also on a hot streak. He has 13 goals in 2013. Back him to make it 14 at 5.0

Dortmund have scored at least two in five of their last six Champions League games. Given Malaga also see holes in their opponents backline, why not back the first leg to be over 2.5 goals at 2.14 and a draw at 3.45.