Champions League Opta Stats: Dortmund to bag trophy

24May 2013

Bajnokok Ligája

 

In the first of three specialised Opta punting pieces to accompany the all-German Wembley final, Christian Crowther picks out his winner plus two others bets...

 

The last meeting on neutral ground between Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund was the 2012 DFB-Pokal final - a game that Dortmund won 5-2

After paying Barcelona's tiki-taka brand of football zero respect in the semi-finals with that emphatic 7-0 aggregate win, not many observers have prophesised anything  other than a Bayern Munich triumph. However, there is no other team more used to taming the Bavarian beast than Borussia Dortmund, who crushed Bayern in that German  Cup final last May. Despite losing out narrowly in two of four meetings this year, the last nine clashes have produced five Dortmund wins and two draws - both of which  arrived in the league this season. Jurgen Klopp's side play without any pressure, whereas Bayern not only carry the baggage of two final defeats in three years, but  also the expectations to deliver an unprecedented German treble.

Best Bet: Back Borussia Dortmund to win the Champions League @ 3.2

 

Dortmund are undefeated against Bayern in their last six Bundesliga meetings (four wins, two draws); however, Bayern Munich are undefeated in four competitive meetings  this season (two wins in the Super Cup and DFB-Pokal and two draws in the Bundesliga)

While the previous two seasons undoubtedly belonged to Klopp's fresh-faced Dortmund side - having claimed successive Bundesliga titles, including the German double  last term - Jupp Heynckes' star-studded side have ensured a pendulum swing in 2012/13. Two 1-1 draws in the Bundesliga are a good barometer of how well matched these  sides are when taking to the turf together this season, while Bayern's two cup victories were achieved in equally tight contests and by the slenderest of margins (1-0  and 2-1). Neither side has scored more than once against the other in the last three of this season's meetings, with the last draw arriving just three weeks ago.

Recommended Bet: Back the score to be 1-1 after 90 minutes @ 8.8

 

This final will be the first all-German clash in a European Cup final; 2000 (Spain), 2003 (Italy) and 2008 (England) are the three previous occasions of teams from the  country meeting in the Champions League final

If the last two Champions League finals between clubs hailing from the same country are anything to go by then we can expect a similarly close encounter at Wembley.  Both AC Milan v Juventus in 2003 and Man United v Chelsea in 2008 witnessed 90 minutes in which the teams couldn't be separated. The familiarity of foe seems to breed  a caginess which is only compounded by the highest of stakes on the big night. Ultimately, both those finals had to be decided from 12 yards. Bayern have led twice at  half-time in the previous four meetings this season.

Recommended Bet: Back Bayern/Draw in Half Time/Full Time @ 17.5

 

Bet HERE

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Keywords: Champions League Opta Stats, Dortmund, trophy

Source: Betfair

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