Champions League Stats: All-German clash should produce at least a goal apiece

24May 2013

Bajnokok Ligája


Andrew Atherley has gone deep into the stats as he chases winning bets for Saturday's Champions League final


One of the notable features of the Champions League final is that it tends to be more exciting than other major finals and, with Saturday's match involving two of the  top four teams on goal average per game in this season's competition, the goals markets are a good place to look for value.


Over/under 2.5 goals is the obvious starting point. There has been an even split of overs/unders in the 20 years of Champions League finals, although Italian teams  have been a drag on the figures and it is worth noting that over 2.5 goals rises to 60 per cent when finals involving Italian sides are excluded.


It is also notable that the average goals per final is 2.55 since Europe's premier club competition was rebranded as the Champions League. As a comparison, in the same period FA Cup finals have averaged 1.9 and World Cup finals a mere 1.4.


That points towards over 2.5 goals at 1.8, although there are complicating figures. Three of the four meetings between Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund this season have had under 2.5 goals, while two of the three previous finals involving clubs from the same country have had unders.


An alternative to over 2.5 goals - at similar odds - is both teams to score at 1.72. Both teams have got on the scoresheet in seven of the 10 finals not involving an Italian side and in three of the four Bayern-Dortmund matches this season, although in only one of the three finals involving clubs from the same country.


At shorter odds, the stats point to the scoring being opened in the first half. Sixteen of the 20 finals in the Champions League era have had at least one first-half  goal (three of the four exceptions involved an Italian side), as have three of the four Bayern-Dortmund matches this season. Over 0.5 first-half goals is 1.34.


Trying to pinpoint the exact timeframe is difficult, of course, but the best value according to the stats is the first goal to be scored in the opening 10 minutes at  4.4 or between 31 and 40 minutes at 7.4.


Punters looking for bigger odds might consider over 1.5 first-half goals at 2.46, although it is a risk because it is less well supported by the stats.


Another short-priced option is a goal to be scored in both halves at 1.53. That has occurred in 10 of the past 14 finals, although in only one of the four Bayern-Dortmund matches this season.


A better option on a similar theme might be a tie in the half with most goals market at 3.3. The odds are surprisingly big given that six of the past 12 finals have been a tie, with four of the other six having most goals in the second half, which is favourite on Saturday at 1.82.


With the Bayern-Dortmund head-to-heads pointing to a close match, Dortmund appeal off +1 on the Asian handicap at 1.7 - a bet that would have won twice and been money-back twice in this season's four meetings.


Bookings markets will be influenced by the recent bad-tempered match between the two sides, which produced seven yellow cards and one red, but that might not be the  best guide. There were a total of eight yellow cards in the other three meetings between the sides this season, while there have been only two recent card-heavy  Champions League finals.


Under 4.5 cards and 25-45 total bookings points are decent options on the stats, while six to eight bookings points at 3.05 is a reasonable bet, having occurred in six of the past 10 finals.


Recommended Bets

Both teams to score at 1.72

Tie in half with most goals at 3.3

Six to eight bookings points at 3.05



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Keywords: Champions League Stats, Andrew Atherley

Source: Betfair

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