FA Cup Stats: City to enjoy Saturday stroll at Wembley

9May 2013

FA Cup


Andrew Atherley has studied the FA Cup statistics and he can't see past a straightforward win for the heavy favourites in Saturday evening's final


The FA Cup has become almost as much of a closed shop as the Premier League in recent years and the stats say Manchester City should have little trouble taking the  trophy for the second time in three years with victory over Wigan.


But the strong figures associated with the dominance of the big six teams mean there are some good alternatives to the short-priced options of City to lift the trophy  at 1.21 and to win the match in 90 minutes at 1.36.


City are now part of the big six and between them that group have won the FA Cup in 22 of the past 24 years. The big-six side has won the last 10 finals when faced by  a team from outside that group, nine of them in 90 minutes and eight of them to nil. The dominance of the big six has been almost total.


Just as tellingly, top-four finishers against teams below that group have won 10 out of 10 in the Premier League era, with a 90-minute record of won nine and drawn  one.


All of those figures point to a City win in 90 minutes, most probably to nil, and their excellent cup record suggests they will not fail on Saturday. Since Roberto  Mancini took charge, City have had 13 wins and only one defeat out of 18 in 90-minute play in the FA Cup. The one defeat was excusable as it was against the strongest  possible opponent (Manchester United last season) and only after they had been fatally weakened by Vincent Kompany's early sending-off.


Most of Wigan's form this season indicates they lack the class to cause an upset. The only team of note they have beaten en route to Wembley is Everton in the 3-0  quarter-final win at Goodison Park. All their other ties were against lower-league opponents (Bournemouth, Macclesfield, Huddersfield and Millwall).


And in the Premier League this season Wigan have lost nine out of 11 against big-six teams (eight of the defeats were to nil). The only big-six team they have had any  success against is Tottenham, with a 1-0 away win and a 2-2 home draw, and their only other goal against a big-six team came in a 4-1 defeat at Chelsea.


It is notable that Mancini has had no problem at all with Wigan since taking over as City boss. His side have won all seven meetings and all to nil (3-0 twice, 2-0  twice and 1-0 three times).


City to win to nil at 1.89 looks a good bet, based on both the overall FA Cup final stats and the City-Wigan head-to-heads.


City have never led more than 1-0 at half-time in those seven meetings (that has been the score four times, with 0-0 on the other three occasions) and it is worth  noting that the opening goal in this season's two league matches came in the 69th minute at Wigan (in a 2-0 win) and in the 83rd minute in City's 1-0 home win.


A half-time score of 0-0 is tempting at 3.2, although for bigger odds it might be worth trying draw/Man City on the half-time/full-time at 3.95.


The obvious second choice for the half-time score is 1-0 to City at 3.25 and that might be better than backing City/City on the half-time/full-time at 2.0.


Under 2.5 goals at 2.28 is strongly indicated, as 14 of the last 20 finals have had unders and so have five of the seven City-Wigan matches in the Mancini era.


For a correct score, 1-0 to City at 8.4 and 2-0 to City at 7.4 look the best options. Eleven of the 20 finals in the Premier League era have had one of those scorelines.


Recommended Bets

Manchester City to win to nil at 1.89

Under 2.5 goals at 2.28



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Keywords: FA Cup, Stats, City, Wembley, Andrew Atherley

Source: Betfair

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