FA Cup Winner: Man City's extra motivation is crucial

 

Christian Crowther casts an eye over all the runners and riders in the FA Cup outright market ahead of fifth-round weekend...

 

Despite plenty of fourth-round heroics and further potential upsets still lurking in this year's competition, history tells us that, when it comes to the eventual winners, the FA Cup seldom strays from the usual suspects.

 

Portsmouth's 2007/08 triumph aside, the last 17 winners have emerged from an exclusive clique, containing only Chelsea - victors on three of the last four occasions - Liverpool, Manchester City, Arsenal and Manchester United.

 

Millwall and Cardiff represent the only finalists in that period to have hailed from outside the top flight and West Ham, as far back as 1980, remain the last club to have won it when not plying their trade in the top division.

 

Unsurprisingly, the market is very much reflective of this historical trend. At this stage, you'd have to be erring towards one of Chelsea, Man City, Man United, Arsenal, and Everton.

 

Ahead of their home tie with Reading, Manchester United make marginal favourites at 3.85, just ahead of their noisy neighbours Manchester City, who are available at 3.9.

 

Both clubs have relatively easy home draws, with City facing Leeds at the Etihad Stadium, so their near joint-favouritism makes sense, but eeking out that extra bit of value on City could prove beneficial.

 

After all, the 2011 winners have all but flunked their title defence and are out of all European competition, so the FA Cup will take precedence for Roberto Mancini.

 

Although Sir Alex Ferguson has made noises about addressing the lack of recent FA Cup triumphs - now stretching back nine seasons to the last - you can be pretty certain that he'd swap it for another Champions League success in an instant and retire content.

 

So where does that leave the rest? It would be decent sport if Chelsea would let someone else win the cup for a change.

 

Rated at 6.0, the holders are of course impossible to ignore though, unlike last season when they won it, Chelsea can't afford to let their top-four challenge slide as they lack the insurance policy of winning the Champions League in order to ensure they get back into it.

 

So, concentrating efforts on finishing fourth or higher may dilute the Blues' ambitions on this trophy.

 

One of Arsenal or Everton is where the greater value lies at present, available to back at 6.8 and 8.6 respectively.

 

Out of the two, it's Arsenal who get the vote. Everton's potential banana skin at Oldham is too hard to ignore after the Latics toppled their city neighbours Liverpool.

 

Arsenal should negotiate Blackburn at home with relative ease and, when in all likelihood they exit to Bayern Munich in the Champions League, this competition will receive all of Arsene Wenger's attention, as the Frenchman cannot risk yet another trophyless season.

 

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