Heavy schedule to hurt Chelsea while Stoke and Norwich must find form

17Apr 2013

England - Premier League

There are just a few games remaining in the Premier League season but much is still to be decided in England's top flight. Andrew Atherley picks out the best from the top and the bottom in his weekly statistical look at the Premier League

Now that we're inside the final month of the Premier League season, it seems a good time to try to grab some of the remaining value in markets at both ends of the table.

Arsenal's surge has turned up the heat in the battle for Champions League places, putting them in front of Chelsea, Tottenham and Everton as those four teams chase the two remaining spots (on the assumption that Manchester City do not implode in dramatic fashion).

Everton are big outsiders and the other team expected by the markets to miss out is Tottenham, who are 2.28 for a top-four finish while Chelsea are 1.36 and Arsenal 1.44.

Depsite being checked by Everton last night, the Gunners look pretty solid now and the battle may lie between Chelsea and Tottenham, with the imponderable being the West London club's heavy fixture schedule. In the 33 days from tonight's match against Fulham to the final day of the Premier League season, Chelsea will play at least nine and possibly 10 games depending on whether they reach the Europa League final.

That's an average of at least one game per 3.66 days (two per week) whereas Spurs will have more than a day longer between matches and Arsenal slightly longer, with the north London teams having no other competition to go for apart from the Premier League.

If we define periods of heavy scheduling as continually having less than a week between Premier League games, Chelsea have already had two such periods in the past two months. The first was February 14 to March 17 (31 days) when they had four wins, two draws and two defeats out of eight in Premier League and Europa League games. The most recent period was March 30 to April 14 (16 days) when they had three wins and three defeats out of six.

The best of those runs would give them a final total of 70 points, with the worst run giving them 67. That means Tottenham have a decent shot at pipping Chelsea if they can get to 71 points (taking into account Chelsea's superior goal difference), which equates to four wins and a draw from their final six games.

Tottenham's last six games have brought 10 points, which would be enough only if Chelsea under-perform to the level they did in the first of those busy runs. But it is noteworthy that when Tottenham were freed from the demands of the Europa League in mid-season, they accumulated 22 points in 11 games and at that rate they would get to 70 points.

With the margins looking tight, Chelsea are worth laying at 1.38.

At the other end of the table, with Reading and QPR seemingly doomed, the question is whether Wigan can escape again. They are 2.7 to occupy the third relegation berth but they have games in hand and it is noteworthy that they are three points ahead of where they were at this stage last season before finishing seven points clear of the drop zone.

Based on current form, Wigan could reach a similar end-of-season total. They have taken 11 points from their last seven matches and if they do that again over the remaining seven games they will finish on 42 points.

Three teams in particular appear vulnerable to a Wigan surge, if they do not significantly improve their form over the past five matches in their remaining five games. Those teams are Stoke, Sunderland and Norwich, who might all struggle to reach the magic 40-point mark.

Stoke and Norwich - winless in seven and six games respectively - look worth considering for relegation at 5.8 and 10.5 respectively. It's almost certain only one of them can go, but at the odds it could be worth having the double chance. The alternative is to lay Wigan to be relegated at 2.74.

Recommended Bets

Lay Chelsea for a top-four finish at 1.38

Back Stoke to be relegated at 5.8

Back Norwich to be relegated at 10.5