Managerless City to run riot

17May 2013

England - Premier League


Jaymes Monte works through the Opta stats for the final weekend of the 2012/13 Premier League season and picks out his best bets...


Chelsea 1.73 v Everton 5.5; The Draw 4.1

Everton have only won one of their last 20 games at Stamford Bridge, so we can immediately disregard an away win from a statistical analysis point of view. However,  six of the last 12 Premier League meetings between the two teams have ended in a draw, so the home win isn't an obvious conclusion to draw.


Everton have won their last five Premier League games played on the final day of the season, including a 1-0 home win against Chelsea in 2010-11, while Chelsea are  unbeaten in seven Premier League matches (W5 D2); their longest such run under Rafael Benitez.


With both sides having positives in the statistics, and the draw a popular result in this fixture, it makes sense to take the 4.1 on offer.


Best Bet: Back The Draw @ 4.1


Liverpool 1.26 v QPR 14.5; The Draw 7.0

QPR have taken just one point from their previous five Premier League visits to Anfield and have collected just two points from their last eight games this season. So  the home win, although short at 1.26, looks a shoo-in.


For a greater return, however, we can look to the goals markets. Liverpool have kept a clean sheet in 10 of their last 15 home league games, while Rangers have not  scored from open play in their last 455 minutes of Premier League football.


Best Bet: Under 3.5 goals @ 1.82


Man City 1.36 v Norwich 11.0; The Draw 5.4

Norwich have won only one of their previous 11 Premier League games against Manchester City, and have been on the receiving end of some one-sided batterings in recent  meetings.


City have scored 18 goals in their last four league games against the Canaries, with Sergio Aguero scoring four of those. More than the Argentine has scored against  any other Premier League side.


Best Bet: Back Any Unquoted @ 4.4


Southampton 1.82 v Stoke 5.2; The Draw 3.8

Southampton have won six and drawn one of their last seven home games against Stoke City in all competitions, but are without a win in five successive Premier League  matches (D3 L2) against all opposition; netting just two goals during this run.


With the Potters having scored only five goals in their last 10 Premier League away matches, the obvious conclusion is to go low on the number of goals scored this  weekend.


Best Bet: Back Under 2.5 goals @ 1.76


Swansea 1.91 v Fulham 4.4; The Draw 3.8

Swansea have a 100% Premier League record against Fulham having won each of their previous three meetings, and after losing just one of their last nine Premier League  games its easy to conclude that a home win represents value at odds of 1.91.


If you're looking for a bet at bigger odds then it may be worth looking at the HT/FT market. 11 of Dimitar Berbatov's 14 Premier League goals for Fulham have come  before half-time, while Swansea have scored the highest percentage of goals in the second half of matches in the Premier League this season (70%).


Best Bet: Back Fulham/Swansea @ 30.0 in HT/FT


West Brom 4.9 v Man Utd 1.82; The Draw 4.1

Only Chelsea (33) have scored more Premier League goals against West Brom than Manchester United (32), suggesting that Sir Alex Ferguson could sing off in style from  his Manchester United tenure in his 1500th game.


Man Utd also have the best points per game ratio in the month of May in the history of the competition (2.07), while West Brom have the worst (0.84), of current top  flight teams.


Best Bet: Back Man Utd to win @ 1.82


West Ham 1.7 v Reading 5.8; The Draw 4.0

The Hammers have lost just one of their last eight Premier League home games (W4 D3 L1), but have won only one of their previous five Premier League meetings with  Reading (D1 L3).


Reading's record of having won fewer points away from home than any other side in the Premier League season means that we cannot back the visitors, but there is room  to take on the hosts at odds-on prices.


Best Bet: Lay West Ham to win @ 1.7


Wigan 2.24 v Aston Villa 3.55; The Draw 3.55

Wigan have failed to win any of their last six home games in the Premier League against Aston Villa (D2 L4), and with the wind being battered out of them by Arsenal in  midweek I can't be having them as favourites here.


However, Christian Benteke's suspension will leave Villa short of impetus in front of goal - he has contributed to half of Villa's 30 Premier League goals this year  (14 goals, 1 assist) - and so we should expect a low-scoring end-of-season stalemate.


Best Bet: Back 0-0 Correct Score @ 15.0



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Keywords: Chelsea, Everton, Liverpool, QPR

Source: Betfair

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