Men's French Open Betting: Draw opens up possibility of a big priced finalist

26May 2013

Roland Garros

The French Open 2013 begins in Paris on Sunday and tennis expert Sean Calvert analyses the men's draw which took place today and selects the best alternatives to the market leaders..

The culmination of the clay swing, the 2013 French Open at Roland Garros begins this weekend and only one of Novak Djokovic and Rafa Nadal will be in the men's final this year.

Pretty much the only question at Friday's draw ceremony was whether the two favourites would be drawn in the same half and indeed they were, which has seen Djokovic ease slightly to around 3.8 in the outright market, while a kinder draw for Roger Federer has seen the Swiss come in from 20.0 to 16.0.

Dissecting the draw then, starting at the top and Djokovic has a first round draw that will almost certainly have deeper consequences for his opponent, as David Goffin won't be defending his round four from last year and after a poor 12 months his ranking will slip.

The match that most neutrals will be looking for to happen in that section is in round three where Djokovic may face Grigor Dimitrov again in what could be a classic and pretty much rules out any slim hopes that Dimitrov had this fortnight. Even if he wins it, which is unlikely, he'll be spent for the rest of the tournament.

Looking beyond that the erratic duo Alex Dolgopolov and Philipp Kohlschreiber are potential last 16 opponents and the adjacent section looks wide open, with Tommy Haas looking to have a fine chance of a quarter final spot and a decent back-to-lay choice at 600.0.

Haas is in a section with the hopelessly out of form Janko Tipsarevic and the likes of John Isner, Mikhail Youzhny and Fernando Verdasco, which are certainly winnable matches for the veteran German.

The next section is Rafa's and he opens against hit and miss German Daniel Brands and nothing much of any real likelihood of testing Nadal, such as the likes of Fabio Fognini, Kei Nishikori and Benoit Paire waiting down the line.

Rafa's quarter final opponent looks likely to be one of Stan Wawrinka or Richard Gasquet, with other possibles including Jerzy Janowicz, Florian Mayer, Nikolay Davydenko or Albert Ramos.

Wawrinka could have been a dark horse this fortnight, but he's been injured and drawing Nadal pretty much counts him out, as it does for Gasquet. I can't see either stopping Rafa unless injury strikes the Spaniard and a Nadal/Djokovic semi final looks likely.

But the bottom half of the draw looks open and although Tomas Berdych has a tough opening two rounds against the back-to-form Gael Monfils and the dangerous Ernests Gulbis he has a shot at 70.0. The Berdman would then have to get past probably Tommy Robredo and Nico Almagro before a potential quarter final with David Ferrer, who will be pleased with his draw.

Ferrer has Milos Raonic, Kevin Anderson, Albert Montanes, Marcel Granollers and Feli Lopez in his section and he couldn't have wished for better. The value there might be to side with Anderson at a big price to win the section, as the big South African has been light years better this season on the dirt and he'd be a good price as an alternative to Ferrer, who has one semi final and two last eight finishes in 10 years of coming to Roland Garros.

Finally, Federer's section in which he starts with a couple of qualifiers and then perhaps the out of touch Julien Benneteau followed by Gilles Simon, who Federer took apart in Rome and a quarter final with maybe Jo-Wilfried Tsonga or possibly one of Marin Cilic, Juan Monaco, Radek Stepanek and Jeremy Chardy.

In short it's a good section for the Swiss and a good one for value hunters, as Federer hasn't been in good form of late and if you're after a big priced runner then Berdych at around 70.0, Monfils at 500.0, Gulbis at 130.0 or Anderson at 1000.0 could fit the bill. Or if you're a Federer fan he has a more than decent shot of another final at 16.0.

If you believe Djokovic to be vulnerable at the moment then Haas to win that section looks a solid choice or a back-to-lay at around 600.0.

With the top two in the betting drawn to face each other in the last four there are possibilities elsewhere at some fancy prices.

Recommended Bets (all back-to-lay)

Back Haas at 600.0

Back Anderson at 1000.0

Back Berdych at 70.0 or Gulbis at 130.0