Men's French Open Betting: Wawrinka to continue Gasquet's fourth round nightmare

3Jun 2013

Roland Garros

It's the remaining matches in the men's fourth round at Roland Garros on Monday with quarter final places up for grabs and Sean Calvert fancies the Swiss number two to join the Swiss number one in the last eight...

My idea of siding with Kevin Anderson on Sunday was shot down in flames by a very good performance from David Ferrer and a tepid effort from the big South African.

Anderson needed to hit the ground running and a tentative start put him on the back foot from which he was unable to recover and Ferrer was an easy winner on the day.

Wager two looked better when Nico Almagro went two sets and 4-1 up on compatriot Tommy Robredo, but for the umpteenth time Nico choked and lost five in a row to lose the set. Not only that, but he was *4-2 ahead in set four and choked that after taking a bathroom break and *2-0 up in the fifth before, yes, you've guessed it, choking again.

I felt bad about that, but not as bad as the punters who had £423,000 matched on Nico at 1.01 and saw their cash disappear in what was the third time in three matches here that Robredo has come back from 2-0 down to win. That's the first time ever that feat has been achieved in a grand slam in the Open era (or since 1927 if you prefer), but the bad news for Tommy is that he has Ferrer next.

Monday sees the remaining fourth round matches taking place and I like Stan Wawrinka to continue Richard Gasquet's appalling record in the fourth round of majors and poor record here at his home grand slam.

Gasquet has failed to make it past this stage in his last 18 straight majors since his appearance in the Wimbledon semis in 2007 and he's lost in the fourth round in 10 of those tournaments.

He lulls you into backing him by showing good form in Masters 1000s and other tournaments, but he's never been past this fourth round stage at Roland Garros and I have to side with Wawrinka today in what will be only their second meeting.

Their only previous encounter was also in Paris, but indoors on carpet in Bercy back in 2006 and that has no relevance to today's match, which should be a treat for fans of stylish shot making.

There should be plenty of flashy single handed backhand winners in this one and it could well go over the 39.5 total games mark, but Wawrinka has been superb at times this season and after reaching the final of Madrid he'll be playing with confidence and freedom, which Gasquet's record here suggests he won't.

Rafa Nadal hasn't exactly exuded much confidence and enjoyment here at Roland Garros so far this year and he's looked vulnerable in all three of his matches so far and punters will be well advised to have a close look at the weather before betting today.

Nadal really has been below par in the damp, slow conditions, but he's often a very different animal with the sun on his back when the courts are dry enough to allow him to dominate with his topspin lefty forehand that kicks like a mule and rears up off the court.

Kei Nishikori is more than capable of taking down the top stars if they have off days, but I'm not sure he was the raw power to defeat Rafa even if he's having another off day.

The Nishikori +8.5 games looks a decent option on the handicap from all we've seen from Nadal so far, but I'd be checking the weather before I put any money down on this match.

Back Wawrinka to beat Gasquet at 1.75


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Keywords: French Open, Wawrinka, Gasquet

Source: Betfair

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