Premier League Stats: Back goals and a home win at Old Trafford in the Manchester derby

4Apr 2013

England - Premier League

 

Andrew Atherley crunches the numbers and concludes that champions-elect Manchester United are good value for a home win on Monday night...

 

Manchester United can confirm their current superiority over slightly less noisy neighbours Manchester City in Monday's top-of-the-table clash and the chance to back  the excellent home record of the champions-elect at odds-against is too good to pass up.

 

With another entertaining match on the cards, over 2.5 goals looks a solid bet too.

 

A little less than 12 months ago, the Manchester derby was a pivotal match in the title race when City won 1-0 at home to put them back on top with two games to play.

 

The same significance won't be attached to Monday's result, with United needing a maximum of 10 points from seven games to reclaim the title even if they are defeated  by City.

 

But, as always, local bragging rights are at stake and nowadays there is the added importance of maintaining a psychological advantage over their nearest title rivals.  At the moment that has swung in favour of United, who bounced back from last season's critical pair of defeats in the Premier League derbies to record a 3-2 away win  in December that put them in control of this season's title race.

 

It is worth noting that, on the last five occasions when there was a winner of the first league meeting of the season, the return fixture resulted in victory for the  same team. The last time the two teams each had a victory in the league derbies was in the 2003/04 season - and that is the only time it has happened in the Premier  League era.

 

That makes United's 3-2 win at City in December a key piece of form, and there are other factors in United's favour. For a start, their home form is superb. Since  Cristiano Ronaldo left Old Trafford (a departure that many believed would herald a decline) United have won 63 out of 72 at home in the Premier League (a win rate of  88 per cent).

 

That win rate is the same even in games against the rest of the big six, with 15 wins out of 17 in the post-Ronaldo era. The only blots on that record were last  season's 6-1 defeat by City and the 3-2 loss to Tottenham this season.

 

While United's home record even against the big six is exceptionally strong, City's away record since the 6-1 win at Old Trafford is questionable. They have won only  once in six subsequent visits to big-six teams and that was the 2-0 win at Arsenal in January, a result heavily influenced by the ninth-minute sending-off of Laurent  Koscielny for the hosts.

 

City have lost only two of those last six trips to big-six sides, but a key statistic is that they have kept only two clean sheets in that run and have conceded in 18  out of 29 overall since the 6-1 win at United. It has become harder for them to win when conceding - their win rate is 33 per cent - and United rarely fail to score at  home (it has happened just once in the post-Ronaldo era).

 

That indicates a good chance for United at win odds of 2.25.

 

The markets have latched on to the fact that matches between the big six are generally high-scoring but Monday's odds of 1.75 may not be short enough. This season 71 per cent of big-six matches have had over 2.5 goals, and last season's figure was 67 per cent, and United in particular have been chief contributors with all 10 home matches in that category since the start of 2011 having gone over 2.5 goals.

 

Recommended Bets

Manchester United to beat Manchester City at 2.25

Over 2.5 goals in Manchester United v Manchester City at 1.75

 

Bet HERE

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Keywords: Premier League, Stats, goals, Old Trafford, Manchester, derby

Source: Betfair

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