Take a chance on Dolgopolov to find his form

 

Tennis expert Sean Calvert is in good tipping form at the moment, with two winners in the 5.9 range in consecutive weeks on the ATP Tour. He turns his attentions to Delray Beach this week..

 

It was a second winning week in a row for this column, as Jo-Wilfried Tsonga took the title at the Open 13 in Marseille.

 

The big Frenchman had to save a match point to do it in the final and in the quarter final against Bernard Tomic, but he rewarded his backers who were on at 5.9 at the start of the week.

 

The ATP World Tour moves on to Dubai, Delray Beach and Acapulco in week nine and the former is the biggest in terms of prize money, with $2 million in the fund in the Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships.

 

Although this is the tournament that will garner most of the attention this week, with the likes of Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer in attendance, along with Tsonga, Tomas Berdych and Juan Martin Del Potro, it offers little in the way of outright betting value in my view,

 

The draw sees Federer, Berdych, Tsonga, Tomic and Janko Tipsarevic in the same half and a virtual shoot-out between Djokovic and Del Potro in the top half, resulting in what will probably be a Nole win at around 1.8.

 

That's of no interest to me and instead there are options for several players in Delray Beach, where it's worth taking a chance - and it is a big risk - on Alexandr Dolgopolov at a tempting 15.0.

 

This ATP 250 outdoor hard court event is wide open, but at the moment the bottom half of the draw looks the place to be, with Dolgopolov's quarter containing only Tommy Haas, who retired last week in Memphis of any real quality.

 

The rest of the bottom half includes the out of form Americans Sam Querrey and Ryan Harrison and Xavier Malisse who also retired last week in Memphis.

 

The two qualifying spots in the bottom half may be more interesting, as Ernests Gulbis, who won here a few years ago and is back in form is likely to be one of them, as could be Ricardas Berankis. Both are dangerous but neither can meet Dolgo until the semi finals at the earliest (or even the final if they are placed in the top half of the draw).

 

The top half looks tougher to call, with another out of form American John Isner heading the seeds and defending champion Kevin Anderson and last year's runner-up Marinko Matosevic also in that quarter.

 

The adjacent section includes Memphis title winner Kei Nishikori, who should be winning tournaments like this regularly and did win here back in 2008, but I'm never convinced about his fitness and back-to-back long weeks for Kei ahead of Indian Wells and Miami seems unlikely.

 

I wouldn't be surprised to see Nishikori lose first up here against Ivo Karlovic, who beat him convincingly in Davis Cup a year ago in Japan and at 5.0 I will avoid Kei this week.

 

Others who may take advantage of any slip up by Nishikori in his section of the draw include Memphis finalist Feli Lopez, wild card Jack Sock, Aussie Matt Ebden or maybe Karlovic.

 

In the top half I would favour Anderson, who played well at the Australian Open and hasn't played since. He'll be fresh and at around 9.0 the defending champion will be motivated and should be able to take care of Isner and co in the first quarter.

 

It's always a big risk putting any money on Dolgopolov, as he could easily lose in the first round if he doesn't fancy it, but on his best form he could walk through this kind of event and it's worth siding with him at a decent price.

 

Recommended Bet

Back Dolgopolov at 15.0

 

Bet HERE

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