The Big Match Tactical View: Mali v Nigeria

 

The Eagles meet The Super Eagles - Michael Cox discusses whether Nigeria will live up to their loftier nickname.

 

Mali v Nigeria, Wednesday 3:00, ITV4 and Eurosport.

Match Odds: Mali 4.2, Nigeria 2.2, The Draw 3.15.

 

It's not often you find Over 2.5 goals available at 2.74, but that sums up the expectations for Wednesday's first Africa Nations Cup semi-final - Nigeria's standard of play has been disappointing, while Mali have managed just three goals in their four matches so far.

 

Having upset the odds to record a famous victory over favourites Ivory Coast, Nigeria now must re-focus and, ideally, change their approach against a weaker side. It remains to be seen whether that will happen, however - a defining feature of African football is that many sides remain better at playing counter-attacking rather than proactive football, and the danger in this match is that two reactive sides will cancel each other out, creating a dull, scrappy match.

 

Of the two sides, however, it's more likely Nigeria will take the game to the opposition, hopefully by pushing their two talented wingers high up the pitch. While Victor Moses is the bigger name, Emmanuel Emenike has scored three times in four matches so far, and is the game's most dangerous attacker - his battle with Adama Tamboura will be crucial. Tamboura is a talented, energetic left-back who enjoys scampering up the line to provide another attacking option, so it will be fascinating to see how he copes with Emenike - be cautious and deny space in behind, or push his opponent back? This might be the game's key battle.

 

While Nigeria coach Stephen Keshi - who coached Mali from 2008 until 2010 - has made a few changes to his side so far, significant alterations are unlikely following the impressive performance against the Ivory Coast. Sunday Mba is a more cautious option than Emmanuel "Nosa" Nosakhare, but will help in a packed, physical midfield zone, while Jon Obi Mikel will have some license to push forward from deeper.

 

Mali coach Patrice Carteron changed the shape of his side slightly midway through the group phase. Following the 1-0 defeat to Ghana, he pushed QPR midfielder Samba Diakite forward to the right of his 4-5-1 / 4-3-3 system, in place of speedy winger Sigamary Diarra, who became a supersub. Diakite essentially provides another midfield option, making the team lopsided with Modibo Maiga more of a natural wide forward on the left.

 

But Carteron's main decisions are in goal and upfront. Between the sticks, he used Mamadou Samassa for the opening three games of the tournament, but suspension forced him out of the penalty shoot-out victory over South Africa, where the more experienced Soumbeila Diakite was the hero - not for the first time. The high possibility of a draw, and spot-kicks again, means Diakite might be a good bet to start here.

 

Upfront, there's a choice between Mamadou Samassa - who, somewhat confusingly, shares a name with his goalkeeping cousin - and Cheick Diabate. Both have started two games each, but Samassa seems more of a goal threat, and will probably begin the game before being replaced by Diabate midway through the second half.

 

In midfield, Mali will be cautious. Momo Sissoko plays in front of the back four with support from Samba Sow, leaving Seydou Keita to drive forward from central positions. For both sides, there's a lack of true creativity, and Keita is the man most likely to orchestrate good passing sequences.

 

That might lead to Mali dominating the centre of the pitch, especially with Diakite playing a narrow right-sided role. Their possession could lead to more corners - interestingly, they've won exactly twice as many corners as Nigeria so far (26 to 13), although they have played half an hour extra, by virtue of their extra-time period against South Africa. If they're available to back at 2.8 in Corners Match Bet, it would be a good bet.

 

Still, Nigeria are the superior side in wide positions, and will be dangerous on the break. They're rightly favourites, although I wouldn't back them unless they got close to 2.5, rather than the current 2.2.

 

Recommended bet:

Back Mali in Corners Match Bet at 2.8

 

Bet HERE

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