Value Alert: Aston Villa have dual motivations to prevail

11May 2013

England - Premier League


After yet more successful value finding last weekend, Christian Crowther is back with Betfair's most punter-friendly widget...


The Value Alert widget contrasts odds calculated using an algorithm that takes into account short and long-term form, variation in home and away performance, records  against teams in specific parts of the table and recent head-to-head results with the latest Betfair prices.


This flags up the area in which public perception most contradicts statistical evidence in either the match odds or over/under 2.5 goals market, identifying potential  back or lay value.


It proved to be another weekend of success for this column last week as Juan Mata's deflected effort at Manchester United crept in at the far post to reward Chelsea  backers at generous Betfair odds.


According to the Value Finder, Betfair's bumper price of 3.55 on an Old Trafford raid by Rafa's boys was a little over generous and so it proved.


By taking a point against Tottenham in their subsequent midweek fixture, the Blues now appear nailed on to make the Champions League places - priced at 1.08 ahead of their trip to Aston Villa Park on Saturday lunchtime.


Looking ahead to that game, the widget has actually flagged up a Chelsea defeat as a potential harbourer of value this time around.


This is certainly a notion worth investigation given the potential extra value lurking in Betfair's price of 4.7 on an Aston Villa triumph.


It's impossible for the Blues not to keep one eye on that midweek date in Amsterdam to contest a first ever Europa League final.


Luckily for them, their goal difference over Tottenham in fifth gives them some extra padding should they come up short. Of course, Rafa will pick a team he feels can  win in the midlands but, given his desire to crown his strained tenure with a trophy, some key personnel should get rested.


Furthermore, this resurgent Villa side have dual motivations for beating the Blues. Victory would not only pay Chelsea back for that 8-0 humbling earlier in the season  but, crucially, it will secure Villa's Premier League status with a game to spare.


Elsewhere, squeezing 0.5 of value on a West Brom win at Norwich - available at 3.6 - seems like a good move.


The Baggies triumphed 2-1 against the Canaries earlier in the season and the home side are in serious relegation form, having lost three of their last four.



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Keywords: Value Alert, Aston Villa

Source: Betfair

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