Value Alert: Get back on the Aston Villa horse punters

19May 2013

England - Premier League

 

For the last time this season, Christian Crowther searches for value among the weekend's Premier League fixtures...

 

The Value Alert widget contrasts odds calculated using an algorithm that takes into account short and long-term form, variation in home and away performance, records  against teams in specific parts of the table and recent head-to-head results with the latest Betfair prices.

 

This flags up the area in which public perception most contradicts statistical evidence in either the match odds or over/under 2.5 goals market, identifying potential  back or lay value.

 

You can always rely on super Frank Lampard for a goal or 203. The Chelsea legend's second strike last weekend simultaneously ended any hope of an Aston Villa victory  and toppled Bobby Tambling in the all-time Blues scorer charts at Stamford Bridge.

 

Not bad Frank, it must be said, but after the Value Finder tempted me into backing an in-form Villa to come out on top at 4.7, I can't say I cheered particularly loudly when he finally broke the record.

 

Never mind, after a few weeks of unbridled success in this column, there was always going to be a setback at some point.

 

This is why it's time to get back on the horse straight away. Yes, that's right, the Aston Villa horse.

 

Paul Lambert's side travel to relegated Wigan, rated by Betfair at 3.75 to grab the points, though the Value Finder has flagged up some interesting price to form disparity.

 

The widget suggests Betfair's price is leaning heavily on the generous side of things with a potential 1.44 extra value to be garnered from the midlanders winning.

 

Wigan may have beaten Villa away, but at home to them they have a bad recent record - winless in six encounters at the DW Stadium, on the end of four defeats in that  period.

 

With arguably their best player of the season, Callum McManaman, added to an ever-increasing injury list as well, the Villans can take advantage once more, after  impressive away wins at Stoke and Norwich recently.

 

Elsewhere, taking advantage of Betfair's juicy price of 5.3 on a Stoke win at Southampton may pay dividends to the tune of 1.60 according to the widget.

 

Tony Pulis' resurgent Stoke side have collected four points from the last six available on the road, while the troubled Saint's are winless in their last five.

 

Bet HERE

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Keywords: Value Alert, Aston Villa, horse

Source: Betfair

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