Premier League Tips: Saturdays 3pm kick-offs

• Posted by: Milan
• 21 September 2012
• Football
• Comment!

Four games in - is that too early to think of Chelsea as top-six finishers?

Probably not. And that's bad news for the visitors: the Potters have lost 18/23 on the road to such exalted sides.

Roberto Di Matteo's lot have won their first two at Stamford Bridge by a couple of goals and lead Stoke 12-1 in meetings there over the last four seasons.

This weekend's ride should be as smooth as Patrick Swayze in that scene from Ghost, so it's all about crafting ways to turn a short price on the home win into something a little longer.

Well, Stoke have been behind at half-time in 15 of those 18 losses we mentioned earlier. The Chelsea/Chelsea double-result is on offer at 2.12.

The final margin in 12 of the 18 was a couple of goals or more, so Chelsea -1.5 on the Asian Handicap is a goer at a similar price.

22.09.2012 16:00 Chelsea - Stoke 1.31   5.02   9.42

The Saints have feet of clay, if you'll allow us to mangle a biblical metaphor. Nigel Adkins' side have dazzled against the Manchester sides, but lost 4/4 so far, mullered most recently by Arsenal.

Nineteen goals in those four games raises the idea of Over 2.5 Goals at an odds-against price this weekend. Just be prepared to take a cover bet too: four of Aston Villa's last nine on the road to promoted sides have finished 1-1.

The Villans are guilty on various charges of dropping points away to newbies, failing to win any of nine such matches since emerging victorious from a Birmingham derby in 2009 (W0-D5-L4).

Indeed, they haven't won any of their last ten on the road against anyone, but it's unfair to pin Alex McLeish's inadequacies on Paul Lambert, who has Darren Bent fit and free to help improve a team record of scoring just four times in those ten games.

The home side might be without Jos Hooiveld, which would mean a full debut for Maya Yoshida in central defence, and both teams look likely to score.

22.09.2012 16:00 Southampton - Aston Villa 2.40   3.28   2.87

 

Steve Clarke is blooming at the Hawthorns. A perennial assistant manager, his first two home games as the boss man brought five goals unanswered by visitors from Merseyside.

Blending Roy Hodgson's defensive legacy to some of his own ideas about passing football, the team looks solid.

Jonas Olsson, last season's fans' player of the year, is still there in central defence. All of the Black Country wants him to sign a new contract, but for now he is concentrating on improving the team's record of seven clean sheets in nine home games since February.

Reading have scored in each of their three games so far, despite taking fewer shots per game this season than anyone bar Sunderland (thanks, Opta).

While Brian McDermott's most pressing problem might be at the back, the prices on a West Brom Clean Sheet and the West Brom Win to Nil are a little bit too good to ignore.

22.09.2012 16:00 West Bromwich - Reading 1.84   3.38   4.38

 

 

Sunderland are hard to read. They won 7/10 upon Martin O'Neill's arrival in December last year, then 2/14. That's now 2/17 after opening the new campaign with three draws.

Perhaps they stopped trying quite so hard once mid-table mediocrity was assured, but there might be a more serious problem: Bent, Gyan and Bendtner have all disappeared out of the club in the last couple of years.

Johnson, Larsson and Sessegnon can all supply the bullets, but who's going to fire Sunderland to three points? Not £12m summer signing Steven Fletcher, it seems. The Black Cats are averaging just five shots a game to date.

West Ham are yet to concede at Upon Park this term, shutting out Aston Villa and Fulham. Sam Allardyce is building another team around a stern defensive unit that looks capable of keeping Sunderland at bay, but, without Andy Carroll again, the Hammers might not be able to crack their visitors either.

Both sides have been involved in goalless draws already this season and 11.5 is a generous offer for another stalemate on Saturday afternoon. Under 2.5 Goals might also be overpriced at 1.86.

22.09.2012 16:00 West Ham - Sunderland 2.25   3.25   3.15

 

Fulham have conceded three goals before half-time in each of their first two away games. Wigan could do similar damage early, if only they were in their season-closing form.

But it's only September and Roberto Martinez has hardly put his passing machine back together - minus Rodallega and Moses - let alone oiled it. The Latics have lost to Chelsea and drawn with Stoke at the DW Stadium.

Martin Jol's worked quickly to fill the gaps in Fulham's team left by Dembele and Dempsey. They've gone to earn their Spurs in North London and it's a White Hart Lane veteran who's the new show south of the river.

Dimitar Berbatov scored a brace on full debut last weekend and might rate a bet at 3.2 or more to locate the Wigan onion bag this time. The Bulgarian's scored in each of his last three starts against them - which all ended in 5-0 wins for Man U - and in 6/9 since he arrived in the Premiership all those years ago.

22.09.2012 16:00 Wigan - Fulham 2.47   3.25   2.78

(Source: Betfair)

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