Back Genoa to beat abject Inter and Catania to school relegated Pescara

Serie A 2010/11

Dave Farrar thinks Genoa can pile more misery on Andrea Stramaccioni's men while Pescara's appalling defence is likely to mean a field day for Catania...


After a difficult midweek Serie A, we're now faced with a tough looking punting weekend. When a season has as much decided as this one already does, it's always  difficult to find an edge. The bad old days of constant collusion may be behind us, but there is still a huge question mark about attitude and motivation as we reach  the end of a Serie A campaign like this one. We're duty bound to find you a bet, though, and let's begin with the obvious. For those of you who like to play at short  odds (and these wouldn't be bets for me) there are a series of tasty looking home win bets which it's very hard to see go down. Udinese at 1.36 to beat Atalanta, Fiorentina at 1.41 to beat Palermo, Lazio at 1.37 to beat Sampdoria, Juventus to beat Cagliari at 1.32 and Napoli at 1.32 to beat Siena. All of these look cast iron, but unbackable for me, so I'll look elsewhere to try and find some value.

Catania v Pescara


When Pescara beat Catania with a dramatic 95th minute goal just before Christmas, it looked as if Pescara had a genuine chance of survival. They have fallen away since  then, though, and the extraordinary statistic which has sealed their doom is that they have picked up only two points in their last 17 games. They've been poor going  forward but particularly bad at the back. 78 goals conceded is embarrassing, and with Pescara letting in four goals in each of their previous two games, that's a  statistic that we can make use of. 'Any Unquoted' in the Correct Score market for Catania against Pescara is available at around the 4.5 mark, and even though that might seem a little short, I think the way that Pescara's season has unravelled makes it a fair price. Catania aren't especially motivated, with a mid table finish guaranteed, but with Gonzalo Bergessio in good form, they'll want to turn on the style in front of their own fans, and with Pescara so desperately short of quality, there's every chance that Catania will get at least four goals.


Recommended Bet

Back 'Any Unquoted' in Correct Score market @ 4.5



Genoa v Inter


I wouldn't normally recommend a team involved in a relegation struggle against one of Italy's giants at odds on, but Genoa look like value at home against Inter at  around 1.85. Inter's shortcomings have been plain to see in recent weeks, and they've now lost 7 of their last 10 games as they fade towards a mid table finish. Antonio Cassano may be fit enough to return to the Inter bench, but suspensions for both Juan Jesus and Alvaro Pereira seriously weaken Inter's already injury hit squad. Davide Ballardini has turned around Genoa's fortunes, and their fully fit squad and desperation for a win means that they should be a bit shorter to beat abject Inter. Inter have already lost a record number of games this Serie A season, expect them to add one more defeat to the tally this weekend.


Recommended Bet

Back Genoa to beat Inter @ 1.85



Milan v Roma


Sunday night's big game has had the edge taken off it somewhat by Roma's shock midweek defeat by Chievo. Roma were on the charge, and there was real confidence that  they could still make a run at 4th place, but the wind has been knocked out of their sails now, and for all Aurelio Andreazzoli's public statements, they must know  that their race is run. Milan need three points from their last two games to be absolutely sure of a Champions League qualifying round place, and I think that they're  a little short to beat Roma. Andreazzoli's team were a little unfortunate against Chievo, and their win the previous week in Florence showed the quality that they  possess. Roma have a team which is packed with big game players, and they're good enough to at least pick up a draw in Milan, especially with the psychological  benefits of the thrashing they dished out to the Rossoneri before Christmas. Roma should still be motivated enough to want something from this game, and so the lay of  Milan at a stupidly short 1.72 is the play.


Recommended Bet

Lay Milan against Roma @ 1.72


(Source: Betfair)




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