Expect more defensive woes for Magpies

England - Premier League

Jaymes Monte goes through the Opta statistics and picks out his best bets for this weekend's non-televised Premier League games...


Fulham 1.74 v Reading 5.6; The Draw 4.0

Fulham welcome Reading to Craven Cottage this weekend having not won any of their last five Premier League games and lost the last three without scoring a single goal.

Unfortunately for Reading, the Cottagers have never lost four in a row in the Premier League without netting. While Nigel Adkins' men will also be wary of the threat that Dimitar Berbatov poses. The Bulgarian has scored five goals in four league clashes with the Royals.


Throw into the mix the Opta stat that Reading have lost 11 of their last 12 Premier League away games, including the last five on the bounce, and that 1.74 about a home win looks fairly generous.


Best Bet: Back Fulham to win @ 1.74



Norwich 2.58 v Aston Villa 3.05; The Draw 3.4

Aston Villa can take another giant leap towards Premier League safety by maintaining their impressive recent record against Norwich. The Canaries have won only one of their last nine top-flight meetings with Villa, drawing five and losing three.


Christian Benteke's hat-trick against Sunderland last Monday means that he has now scored more Premier League goals this season (18) than any other past or present Villa player has managed in a single campaign.


Given the high that Villa will come into this game on, and the fact that Norwich have won fewer Premier League games in 2013 than any other team (2), we have to side with the visitors.


Best Bet: Back Villa (Draw No Bet) @ 2.2



Swansea 5.4 v Man City 1.78; The Draw 3.90

Swansea and Manchester City have met just three times previously in the Premier League, with the home side winning to nil on each occasion.


However, the effect of winning the Carling Cup has taken its toll on the Swans, as it did to Birmingham previously, and they have won only one of their seven league games since lifting the trophy.


Best Bet: Back Man City to win @ 1.78



Tottenham 1.5 v Southampton 7.8; The Draw 4.7

Tottenham have won nine and lost just two of their 11 previous Barclays Premier League home meetings with Southampton, while Gareth Bale comes up against his former club on the back of a plethora of awards and having scored in his last three appearances.


Although Southampton have gone 281 minutes of away football in the top-flight without conceding a goal, Spurs have now gone nine Premier League games without a clean sheet. So whether this will be a goal glut or famine is unclear when analysing the stats.


Best Bet: Back Bale to score anytime @ 1.9



West Brom 2.52 v Wigan 3.05; The Draw 3.5

Both teams have scored in all four previous Premier League meetings between West Brom and Wigan at the Hawthorns. Meaning the Yes selection in Betfair's Both Teams To Score market is understandably short at odds of 1.65.


If Wigan need any further encouragement that the great escape is possible once again this season then they need only look to three seasons ago when they had the same number of points after 34 games, and finished comfortably in 16th place.


Just 7% of West Brom's goals this season (three of 46) have come in the opening 15 minutes; a league-low proportion, so the play here is to bet on Unders then look to trade as the game goes on.


Best Bet: Back Under 2.5 goals @ 2.2, with a view to trade In-Play



West Ham 2.36 v Newcastle 3.3; the Draw 3.55

Newcastle's season has taken a nosedive in recent weeks, but they should take encouragement from the Opta stat that West Ham have managed only two clean sheets and taken 11 points (from a possible 42) in the last 14 meetings between these two teams.


Andy Carroll comes up against his former employers in impressive form, having netted four and assisted two in his last five matches. While only Manchester United and Manchester City (both 17) have scored in more consecutive home league games than West Ham (11).


All the indicators point to this one having goals and after watching the way that Newcastle defended against Liverpool odds of 1.9 on Over 2.5 goals looks the bet of the afternoon.


Best Bet: Back Over 2.5 goals @ 1.9


(Source: Betfair)




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