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• Posted by: csabax
• 05 April 2013
• Football
• Comment!

Powered by Opta, Tobias Gourlay has found reasons to support four of the five teams hitting the road for this weekend's three o'clock games.

 

Norwich City v Swansea City

Saturday 15:00

Norwich 2.72 Swansea 2.92 draw 3.4

 

Michael Laudrup's Swansea appear to have survived second-season syndrome.

Chris Hughton's Canaries are flying a little closer to the wind and could really use the three points. Will the crowds flock to see them take on the Swans in East Anglia this Saturday?

 

Possibly not, if they know what we know. This season ten of Norwich's 15 home games - and exactly the same fraction of Swansea's away matches - have produced two goals or fewer.

 

Indeed, Carrow Road has seen fewer goals than anywhere else this season and there's just one Opta-sourced caveat to our main bet: three previous Premier League meetings of these two have turned up 16 goals.

 

Recommended Bet

Back Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.87

 

Stoke City v Aston Villa

Saturday 15:00

Stoke 2.16 Villa 4.0 draw 3.45

 

Four games, four goals, four draws.

 

That's what's happened between these two in the last couple of years.

 

Could Christian Benteke be the man to deliver the three points the visitors urgently need?

 

He's scored nine in 11 league games recently, notching at least once in eight of them (including 4/5 on the road). The Belgian will go off around 3.25 To Score against a team that has managed just one clean sheet in nine at the Britannia.

 

Stoke's defensive frailty - for all the strong-arm tactics talk, they're weak at the back - coupled to a record of scoring just once in their last five home and away sets us against them.

 

Aston Villa +0.5 pays out the same whether it's an away win or just another draw.

 

Recommended Bet

Back Aston Villa +0.5 @ 1.88

 

West Bromwich Albion v Arsenal

Saturday 15:00

West Brom 4.3 Arsenal 2.0 draw 3.75

 

Arsenal have won three straight against West Brom, 4/6 at the Hawthorns and 4/7 anywhere that isn't the Emirates.

 

All of this suggests you should take the even money about them to beat a Baggies team that probably has less to play for than anyone else in the Premier League - Manchester United aside.

 

Wilshere and Walcott might both be missing, but the league is Arsene Wenger's sole focus and his defence is solidifying. Nacho Monreal is no Andre Santos and the back four is improved further by the absence of Thomas Vermaelen.

 

West Brom's four previous home defeats have all been by a single goal, so you could think about siding with them in the Asian Handicap market or even look at the 1-0 and 2-1 Correct Scores, but first and foremost we're keeping things simple.

 

Recommended Bet

Back Arsenal @ 2.0

 

Chelsea v Sunderland

Sunday 15:00

Chelsea 1.36 Sunderland 11.5 draw 5.4

 

Chelsea are in a North London sandwich close to the top of the table, Sunderland have just got themselves into a political pickle at the bottom.

 

It's Paolo Di Canio's first game. Don't expect a bounce from that - new Premier League managers starting away at Stamford Bridge are W0-D1-L3 - but it's definitely a good time to play Chelsea.

 

When you're playing for the fourth time in eight days, what can possibly go right?

 

We'd quite like Sunderland on the Asian Handicap - you can give them a 1.5-goal headstart at 1.9 - but their rotten record against the Blues (they've lost 15/16 league games) and the absence of Steven Fletcher sow seeds of doubt.

 

Both teams to score sounds about right: it's paid out in 4/6 at Stamford Bridge and 8/10 Sunderland away matches.

 

Recommended Bet

Back Both Teams to Score @ 2.1

 

Newcastle United v Fulham

Sunday 15:00

Newcastle 2.1 Fulham 4.0 draw 3.55

 

That two-games-in-four-days thing we mentioned above - it's happening to Newcastle too.

 

So, although 25 of their 33 points have come at St James' Park, we're with Fulham, who are unbeaten in eight if you'll be so kind as to overlook a couple of defeats to the Manchester clubs. Fulham +0.5 is 1.85 on Asian Handicap.

 

The Londoners, who are W5-D1-L1 in recent games with the Toon, have had almost a week off since sparking a Twitter debate (if that's not an oxymoron) about Christopher Samba's wages.

 

Dimitar Berbatov was the provocateur in chief that day and he has now scored in each of his last four appearances. This weekend he's up against a defence that hasn't kept a clean sheet since January, lately conceding 17 goals in nine outings.

 

Opta's had its abacus out and noticed that ten of the swanky Bulgarian's 13 Premier League goals this season have come before half-time.

 

Which means we can sign off with a pot shot at the goalscorer markets.

 

Recommended Bet

Back Dimitar Berbatov First Goalscorer @ 8.5

 

(Source: Betfair)

 

Bet HERE

 

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