ATP Internazionali BNL d'Italia Betting: Nadal to see off Berdych challenge with something to spare

18May 2013

ATP Masters 1000

Sean Calvert was back in the payout queue last night after the Roger Federer match and our tennis expert expects Rafa Nadal to have too much for Tomas Berdych in today's semi finals in Rome..

It's semi finals day at the Foro Italico after a dramatic day's play in the men's singles in Rome on Friday.

Amazingly, Novak Djokovic let a 6-2, 5-2 lead slip against Tomas Berdych and the Czech came back to take the win in a deciding set after the world number one was unable to regain his concentration after failing to finish the Berdman off.

Earlier in the day Benoit Paire continued his excellent form from his win over Juan Martin Del Potro by backing it up against Marcel Granollers in a 6-1, 6-0 thrashing of the Spaniard, who endured a day to forget.

And Roger Federer withstood a barrage of all out attack from Jerzy Janowicz in the night match to book his place in the last four where he will surely bring Paire back down to earth.

Janowicz did keep it tight as I predicted yesterday and my recommended bet of backing over 9.5 games in the first set of that match was a winner.

Rafa Nadal continued his dominance over David Ferrer in the third quarter final of the day and he faces a familiar foe in Berdych for a place in the Rome final for the eighth time.

Berdych snapped an 11 match losing streak when he defeated Djokovic on Friday and he'll need to do snap a 12 match losing run against Rafa if he is to make the championship match in Rome for the first time.

The pair met at the quarter final stage here last year when Nadal ran out a 6-4, 7-5 winner and the scoreline was exactly the same when they met at Indian Wells this year.

Djokovic pretty much choked it away against Berdych and there's little to no chance of that happening today with Rafa, who has seemed as hungry and determined as ever this week despite being perhaps under par physically after a lot of tennis.

Nadal has such burning intensity though that mere fatigue isn't a problem for him and Berdych will need to redline it all match if he's going to come through this and I just don't see how the Czech can do that for two or three sets in a row.

Rafa should ease through this one in two sets and I fancy him to win with a handicap of minus 3.5 games at a price of around 1.68.