Back Independiente to win and a scoreless draw at San Lorenzo

12Apr 2013

Argentina - Torneo Inicial

Ed Malyon says back Independiente and lists several other tips in his weekly South American tipping sheet...

Friday

Independiente v Unión de Santa Fe - 23:00

This game is a massive encounter in the relegation picture, with both sides currently occupying places in the bottom three of Argentina's peculiar average points table.

Sparing you the mechanics, Unión 4.3 are bottom and incredibly unlikely to stay up this season, while Independiente are 0.69 points per game away from safety. Having been in the division for so long - in fact, they are one of only three teams to never be relegated from the top flight - they are slightly disadvantaged when it comes to chasing down 17th-placed Quilmes and if the Brewers continue their current form then Independiente, one of Argentina's five grandes will go down in June.

As far as this weekend goes the two sides are fairly inseparable with just a point difference in the Torneo Final having played very different opposition, but both are low on confidence and need all the points on Friday night.

Independiente's underperformance has been such that forward Luciano Leguizamón was threatened with death on leaving training this week, and having exhausted most options in trying to kickstart his flailing team, Americo Gallego will gamble on youth-teamer Adrián Fernández to make an impact on his first start.

In Daniel Montenegro, Independiente will have by far the best player on the pitch, and in a game like this his quality has to be the determining factor, so although it won't be a big stake, we've got a sneaking feeling that the hosts will get a valuable win - even though it won't be enough to lift them out of the drop zone.

Recommended Bet

Back Independiente at 2.08

Saturday

San Martín de San Juan v Boca Juniors - 20:20

Boca Juniors' struggles this season have been well documented in this very column and we are still waiting for a sign that everything is going to be alright, and that this harking back through the Xeneize's near-history isn't an ill-advised nostalgic journey destined for failure.

San Martín are one of the weakest sides in the division, and are one of only two winless sides remaining in the Torneo Final. Only Colón have conceded more, so Boca's disappointing strike force will get its best chance yet to find some much-needed rhythm.

With only one win in the league, Boca are hardly one to look down on San Martín, but the quality is there throughout the squad, and despite a succession of injuries scotching Carlos Bianchi's plans, the emergence of new youth players from the seemingly endless conveyor belt of talent has produced even more names this season.

Federico Bravo and Sebastián Palacios have joined the likes of Christian Erbes, Leandro Paredes and Juan Sanchez Miño in the first team now, and one feels that with this season already a virtual write-off for Boca, the patience that Bianchi will be afforded due to his history with the club would be best repaid by spending the rest of the campaign building a young, cohesive team.

They're not losing many games, in fact only three rivals have lost fewer league games in the Torneo Final and they shouldn't lose to San Martín. With five draws from eight games there is the fear that a stalemate would nix the away win, so DNB Boca looks to be the best course of action in this game, with quality coming to the fore against a fairly dismal opponent.

Recommended Bet

Back Boca Juniors Draw No Bet @ 1.83

San Lorenzo v Racing Club - 22:10

The key stats in this game all pertain to the low amount of goals expected.

San Lorenzo have been brilliant defensively under Juan Antonio Pizzi, which has helped them pull away from Independiente and Quilmes in the relegation table.

Unfortunately, they've not been very prolific at the other end and a total of just nine goals in their eight games this season doesn't paint a very entertaining picture to say the least. Their games average 1.13 goals apiece, and not a single one has gone over 2.5 goals - so it's no surprise to see the unders exceptionally short at 1.48.

Racing haven't exactly been prolific themselves, and having stabilised after a ropey started to the season, their thoughts will be on the respectable finish that will guarantee them continental qualification and continuing to bring through young talent.

A low-scoring game is inevitable, and with the two weakest attacks in the top half facing off the most worthwhile punt on this one may be 0-0 correct score at 7.0

Recommended Bet

Back 0-0 Correct Score @ 7.0

Lanús v All Boys - 00:15

Lanús lead the table and should beat All Boys this weekend.

No Copa Libertadores distractions mean the Granate have been able to fully focus on the league and a win on Saturday evening would extend their lead to five points over Newell's Old Boys and River Plate.

All Boys have made a name for themselves as a team that's fairly difficult to play against, but despite sitting in the top half their away form has been rubbish in the Torneo Final and although the price is a little short, Lanús win this.

Sunday

Colón de Santa Fe v Vélez Sarsfield - 20:10

Vélez manager Ricardo Gareca has given no hints as to the team he'll play in Santa Fe this weekend but he will be wary of resting too many players against Colón given their recent pick-up in form.

Bottom and winless after six games, Roberto Sensini's side have won two on the bounce now and boast the top scorer of the Torneo Final in Emmanuel Gigliotti. Even with their improvement, you'd think Vélez should be too strong and 2.72 is a big price for the defending champions, but with Colón's consecutive wins it will be safer to make it a Draw No Bet.

Recommended Bet

Back Veléz 0 Asian Handicap @ 1.89

River Plate v Arsenal de Sarandí - 00:15

Third against fourth should be a good game at El Monumental where River look back on course after a bit of a wobble in March. Free from continental commitments it should have been easy for Ramón Díaz to play his strongest team every week but a plague of injuries in defence has derailed his plans and now David Trezeguet is out for the rest of the season with a serious injury that needs operating on.

The good news in this medical crisis is that young players like Eder Balanta, the 20 year-old Colombian defender who made his debut in last week's clásico with Racing, have done well when they've stepped in - and there is some experience in the team to guide them.

Arsenal stay under the radar but consistently overachieve, and the creativity and verve of Carlos Carbonero and Martin Rolle should be the envy of most Primera División midfields. It has meant that in fifteen games this season (across all competitions including the Copa Libertadores) Arsenal have only failed to score once, and with River's defensive personnel issues, we feel as if they'll do so again.

Given the attacking talents at their own disposal, River should trouble their opponents too and even though Arsenal boast one of the best defenders in the country in Lisandro Lopez there is enough support for both teams to score that we will hop on board at an odds-against price.

Recommended Bet

Back both teams to score @ 2.14