Back over 2.5 goals when Spurs, United and Liverpool are on the road

 

There are strong trends pointing to goals when Tottenham, Manchester United and Liverpool go ont their domestic travels, says Andrew Atherley

 

Several of this weekend's Premier League matches look prime candidates to be high-scoring, headed by the glamour clash between Arsenal and Manchester United.

 

A bet that keeps on giving is backing over 2.5 goals in big-six matches, with 20 out of 27 (74 per cent) going over that mark this season. That means last season's 67  per cent will be equalled at least and over the course of both seasons the true odds of a big-six match having over 2.5 goals have been 1.5 or a little less, yet 1.8 is available on Sunday's match.

 

United are one of the driving forces behind higher goals tallies in big-six matches. Since the start of last season 15 of 18 matches in that category have had over 2.5  goals (83 per cent) and they don't hold back in the crunch games, with only one blank in those 18 matches and just one clean sheet too.

 

Arsenal are closer to the average at 63 per cent over 2.5 goals in big-six games, but it is notable that their home matches against United tend to be higher-scoring.  Six of the eight meetings in all competitions since Arsenal moved to the Emirates stadium have had over 2.5 goals.

 

United have had five wins and three draws when they have scored in big-six away games since the start of last season and that makes them attractive at 3.4 for the win on Sunday and a solid chance off 0 & +0.5 on the Asian handicap at 1.99. The odds may factor in that the title is already won, but United are still chasing a Premier League points record and that will be over if they lose.

 

Manchester United are one of the top five teams for games with over 2.5 goals this season and the other four go head-to-head on Saturday when Wigan host Tottenham and  Liverpool travel to Newcastle.

 

All four teams have had at least 65 per cent over 2.5 goals this season and it is even more notable that the figures are higher for the home-and-away situations in  which they find themselves on Saturday.

 

Wigan are second to United for home games with over 2.5 goals on 75 per cent and Newcastle next in the list on 71 per cent, while Tottenham are top for away games with  over 2.5 goals on 81 per cent and Liverpool joint-second on 76 per cent.

 

Three of Wigan's four home games with under 2.5 goals have been against big-six opponents, but there are more persuasive factors that point to over 2.5 goals at 1.81.

 

Wigan have the worst home defensive record with only one clean sheet in 16 games, while Tottenham have scored in all but one of their 16 away games. When Tottenham  have found the net in away games, 13 out of 15 (87 per cent) have had over 2.5 goals.

 

Most of Newcastle's difficulties this season have been against top-half teams and mainly because they have been unable to keep a clean sheet in any of their 17 games  in that category. That has led to over 2.5 goals in 12 out of 17, including seven out of eight at home.

 

With a high probability of Liverpool scoring, over 2.5 goals is more likely than odds of 1.8 indicate. Liverpool have had over 2.5 goals in 12 of the 14 away games in which they have scored and six of their eight away matches against bottom-half teams have gone over that mark.

 

Recommended Bets

Back over 2.5 goals in Wigan v Tottenham @ 1.81

Back over 2.5 goals in Newcastle v Liverpool at 1.8

Back over 2.5 goals in Arsenal v Manchester United at 1.8

 

Bet HERE

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