Back Romans to march into last 16

21Feb 2013

Europa Liga

The last 32 of the Europa League concludes on Thursday evening, and Kevin Hatchard has put three games under the microscope.

Lazio vs Borussia Monchengladbach, Thu 18:00 BST

The 3-3 draw these teams played out in the first leg was remarkable for several reasons. First was the topsy-turvy nature of the clash - Gladbach led 1-0, Lazio went  2-1 up, Gladbach dragged themselves back in front at 3-2, only for Lazio's Libor Kozak to grab an equaliser in the fourth minute of stoppage time. The second  extraordinary thing about the match was that Gladbach were awarded three penalties, two of which they converted. The third point to note is that Lazio managed to  snatch a draw despite playing the last 21 minutes with ten men, after Andre Dias had been sent off.
All of that excitement leaves Borussia Monchengladbach needing a win at the Stadio Olimpico to knock Lazio out, and I can't see that happening. Lucien Favre's side are  strong at home, but they struggle on their travels. The Foals have won just two of their 12 away games in the Bundesliga, and although they are unbeaten away from home  in the Europa League, this is by far their toughest test.
Lazio are in poor form, having not won in five matches, but they have one of the best home records in Italy. In Serie A Vladimir Petkovic's men have won nine out of 13  home games, and in their last two games at the Olimpico they beat Juventus in the Coppa Italia and drew 1-1 with high-flying Napoli. In the Europa League Lazio have  won three out of four home games, keeping clean sheets in all three group matches. Petkovic picked a strong team in the first leg, and is expected to do so again.
Given Lazio's superb home record and Borussia's inconsistency on the road, I'm very surprised to see the Lazio win priced so generously, especially as Gladbach will  have to chase the game at some stage. Backing Lazio at 2.1 is great value.
Recommended Bet
Hannover vs Anzhi Makhachkala, Thu 20:05 BST

Hannover are staring down the barrel after a 3-1 reverse in Russia, but their excellent home form should give them cause to believe they can turn the tie around. In  the Bundesliga Mirko Slomka's entertainers have won seven out of 11 home games, while in the Europa League they have won four out of five and are unbeaten.
Anzhi have been a mixed bag on the road, winning 5-0 at AZ Alkmaar in the qualifiers but losing at Liverpool and Young Boys in the group stage. With strikers like  Samuel Eto'o and Lacina Traore at their disposal, Anzhi rarely fail to score. Indeed, Guus Hiddink's men have drawn a blank just four times in 32 games this season.
With Anzhi likely to score against a suspect Hannover defence weakened by injuries, backing Over 2.5 Goals at 1.85 seems prudent, especially as that bet has paid out in 27 of Hannover's 36 matches this term.
Recommended Bet
Rubin Kazan vs Atletico Madrid, Thu 17:00 BST

Europa League holders Atletico Madrid are in serious danger of tumbling out after last week's shock 2-0 home defeat. Rubin scored after just six minutes, and despite  having Roman Sharonov sent off on the stroke of half-time, the Russians added a second deep into stoppage-time as Atleti keeper Sergio Asenjo was punished for  inexplicably going into the Rubin box for a late corner.
That comedy goal has made Atletico's job extremely difficult. Rubin won all three of their home games in the group stage without conceding a goal, including a 3-0  thrashing of Inter Milan. Atletico's away form in the competition has hardly been stellar - they were beaten at both Academica and Viktoria Plzen, failing to score in  both games.
A strong Atletico side (including Radamel Falcao) couldn't break Rubin down in the first leg, even with a man advantage, and I think they'll encounter similar  resistance in Russia. You can back Rubin Draw No Bet at 1.95, and Under 2.5 Goals also looks attractive at 1.82.
Recommended Bets

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Keywords: Europa League, Lazio, Borussia Monchengladbach

Source: Betfair

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