Back the semi-finals to go with the form book

 

Having racked up an excellent profit on the finals so far James Eastham casts his eye across Wednesday's last four clashes...

 

Mali v Nigeria (Wed)

Live on British Eurosport & ITV4, 15:00 GMT, Match Odds: Mali 4.2, Nigeria 2.2, The Draw 3.15

 

This is the semi-final between two teams most observers never expected to get this far.

 

In the last eight Mali overcame hosts South Africa on penalties, while Nigeria pulled off an even bigger shock by eliminating Ivory Coast, runaway favourites to lift  the trophy since before the tournament began. Nigeria's win was all the more surprising because their place in the knock-out phase was deeply uncertain until the last  15 minutes of their final group games.

 

To a degree, both teams will be pleased just to have come so far. That may lead to an open game with chances at both ends as the sides may feel they have nothing to  lose. Both teams have scored in five of eight matches involving these two sides. I would consider backing both teams to find the net at 2.36 or Over 2.5 Goals at 2.72.

 

For those that have followed this column since before the tournament began, you have a chance to 'green up' by locking in a profit. We backed Mali to reach the final  at an ante-post price of 3.55. By backing Nigeria to do the same, you can guarantee to make money, or at least reduce your losses.

 

 

Burkina Faso v Ghana (Wed)

Live on British Eurosport & ITV4, 18:30 GMT, Match Odds: Burkina Faso 4.08, Ghana 2.04 The Draw 3.2

 

This column felt Burkina Faso were underrated before the tournament began and picked up a 6.2 winner when they topped Group C.

 

Despite our faith in them, however, it was a minor surprise to see them squeeze past Togo thanks to a 1-0 extra-time win in the quarter-finals without star player  Alain Traore (who's still out and will miss the final if they get that far). Winger Jonathan Pitroipa got the winner against Togo but it's hard to make a strong case  for the underdogs as Traore is still out. They scored freely when he was available but have struggled since his injury. Put another way, Burkina Faso have averaged a  goal every 38 minutes with him on the field, and a goal every 199 minutes without him.

 

Following Ivory Coast's elimination Ghana are now tournament favourites at 2.7, and 1.50 to win this tie (Burkina Faso are 2.88). I find it hard to oppose them. Since their 2-2 opening-game draw against DR Congo they have kept three clean sheets in a row, and their chances of doing so again are obviously increased by Traore's absence.

 

Ghana to win 1-0 and 2-0 (6.6 and 9.6 respectively), Ghana to Win to Nil (2.56), Ghana Clean Sheet (2.18) and Under 2.5 Goals (1.51) are all worth considering.

 

Recommended Bets

Best Bet: Mali v Nigeria Both teams to Score @ 2.36

Ghana Clean Sheet v Burkina Faso @ 2.18

Nigeria to Qualify @ 1.58 (if you backed Mali to reach the final at 3.55 ante-post)

 

Bet HERE

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