Betfair World Snooker Championship Tips: Sluggish Higgins to get off to a slow start

21Apr 2013

Betfair

Paul Krishnamurty runs through the best value bets for Sunday's matches, recommending bets in the win, correct score and total frames markets...

Back Peter Ebdon to beat Graeme Dott 3u @ 2.7

Back Over 16.5 Total Frames 6u @ 1.9

There's always at least one first round match at the Crucible that fails to finish in time, meaning the players have to come back at the end of the day. This repeat of the 2006 final looks the likeliest to go that way, because it should be close and given the players concerned, it will probably be scrappy.

Dott deserves favouritism because he as at least had a couple of good tournaments this season, reaching the final of the Munich PTC and the semis of the Betfair Masters. Apart from that, though, he's only made one quarter-final. Ebdon played well enough at the start of the season, but has been abysmal in 2013, at least until beating dangerous qualifier Kurt Maflin to reach the Crucible for the 22nd consecutive year.

That last piece of form makes me lean towards backing Ebdon at 2.7, in the hope that yet again he's peaking in time for the World Championship. If this is scrappy as expected, 'The Force' will be in his element, whereas Dott seems to perform better nowadays when the play is quick. Either way, it's hard to see a one-sided contest, so lets take 1.9 about the match going to a 17th frame.

Back John Higgins to beat Mark Davis 10-9 1u @ 11.0

Back John Higgins to beat Mark Davis 10-8 1u @ 9.0

Back John Higgins to beat Mark Davis 10-7 1u @ 9.0

These two players last met in the UK Championship and produced a classic, with Higgins hitting a 147 before missing a pink off the spot to lose in a decider. Davis was in better form back then and must now rate a longshot to eliminate one of the all-time great match players, but I reckon he'll make Higgins work for the win.

Higgins is hard to call right nowadays. While still world-class in the safety and breakbuilding stakes, long potting has become a real struggle and he seems to start tournaments slowly. My prediction here is for a tight first session, before Higgins makes his class tell at the end. This trio of correct scores pays combined odds just above 3.0. This seems like much better value than just 1.33 about the favourite simply winning the match.