Boxing Betting: Back Cleverly to emerge victorious on the judges scorecards

19Apr 2013

Betfair

Boxing expert Alex Reid thinks Nathan Cleverly can do the business this weekend, but he'll need the judges' scorecards to do it...

"I was in the middle of my maths degree when I really knew I was going places with boxing." No prizes for guessing who told me that in matter-of-fact fashion in a 2011 interview. No, not Mike Tyson or Carol Vorderman (she studied engineering, for one thing), but boxing's famed maths graduate-come-fighter, Nathan Cleverly. Wales' current WBO title-holder comes across as likeable, intelligent and relaxed, but those personal qualities haven't always extended to his in-ring performances.

Cleverly, now 26 years old, has a tendency to get a little hot-headed before a fight and to sometimes box carelessly in his bouts. He's listed as 6ft 1in, appears taller and rangier, yet he rarely uses his height and reach to maximum advantage, preferring to fight in-close and exchange with boxers. This leaves him open to being hit too regularly and his response - often to grin and mug to show he isn't hurt - might prove his cojones, but is unlikely to impress judges, fans or discourage opponents.

He was drawn into a war with bitter domestic rival Tony Bellew and while his stamina and workrate saw him edge to a decision, he came uncomfortably close to losing his title and unbeaten record (currently 25-0 with 12 knockouts). Robin Krasniqi, his opponent at Wembley, does not appear to have the power to take advantage of Cleverly's occasional over-eagerness to engage. He has 15 knockouts in his 41 fights and the 26-year-old's record is less a 'who's-who' of light-heavyweights and more a 'who-the-hell-are-they?'.

Still, the Kosovo-born German is not without his skills. He has quick hands, good movement, a tasty uppercut and has had a tough route to the top. He turned professional as a teenager with precious little amateur experience, then lost two of his first three fights. He's won all of his 38 fights since then and will know this is is his big opportunity to break into the big time. Grit and determination will not be lacking.

That said, Cleverly should still win. He has home advantage, has good hand speed of his own, is the bigger boxer and - at his best - a classier one, too. What will be interesting is if Cleverly can box to a plan and break Krasniqi down slowly, rather than looking to entertain the crowd from the off and leaving himself open to counters. It will be good practise if he does, as Bernard Hopkins is the prize being dangled in front of Cleverly for later this year. The Philadelphia veteran spent his teenage years in prison rather than university, but he has a PhD in boxing and Cleverly will need to smarten up his act against Krasniqi to prove he belongs at the elite levels of the sport.

Dereck Chisora is - like Hopkins - never short of a quote. The British heavyweight who returns from his summer 2012 loss to David Haye on the undercard has said he'll dedicate a victory over his Argentine foe to the late Margaret Thatcher. That looks pretty much nailed-on, as Hector Alfredo Avila has the look of a fighter who wouldn't have stood up well to one swing from a prime Maggie's handbag. In his 33 fights, the 38-year-old has 12 losses (eight via stoppage) and has been beaten on all seven occasions he's fought outside of his native Argentina.

Also on the undercard, speedy southpaw and European lightweight champ Liam Walsh takes on the remains of 35-year-old former champion Scott Harrison. If former champion Harrison were in his pomp, he'd likely outmuscle and breakdown Walsh. However he looked laboured in his 2012 comeback bouts and - as Ricky Hatton can confirm - alcohol problems, age and long breaks out of the ring do damage that can't be hidden by a fresh new six-pack.

Recommended Bet

A hat-trick of British winners in the form of Cleverly, Chisora and Walsh is the sensible bet. Betting on how a fight ends is always more risky, but despite Cleverly's regular eagerness to search for a knockout, Krasniqi looks a durable sort. I'd tip maths graduate Cleverly to be hearing numbers again at the end of this one as he listens to a points victory being announced.

Back Cleverly to win by DEC/TD @ 2.22