Brazil v Russia: Capello can ruin Big Phil's Stamford Bridge return

25Mar 2013

Betfair

Russia are an in-form side under new coach Fabio Capello, while a former Brazil boss hasn't exactly made a geat start to his second stint in charge of the five-time World Cup winners. Jonathan Wilson previews this fascinating international friendly...

Brazil v Russia

Monday 19:30, live on ITV 4

Fabio Capello, it's fair to say, is enjoying his time as coach of Russia rather more than he enjoyed his time as coach of England. His contempt for the English way of doing things was fairly evident by the time he quit as national coach last February but rather than slinking into retirement, he has found a job that is paying him even more than he got from the Football Association, assorted oligarchs chipping in to find a reported salary of £7.8million per year.

His brief is clear. Russia have failed to qualify for the last two World Cups, losing on away goals in a play-off against Slovenia last time round despite going into a 2-0 lead in the first leg in Moscow. With Russia to host the World Cup in 2018, there is a need to at least reach the finals in Brazil (they are 65.0 to win it) to avoid the job that they are not a football country, and that their hosting of the tournament is down only to money.

Capello's first months in the job have been impressive. For one thing, the Italian clearly enjoys life in Moscow finding his renowned appetite for culture sated by Moscow's many theatres and galleries. "My wife lives in Moscow permanently, just like me," he said in a recent interview with Rossiyskaya Gazeta. "We've rented a flat in the centre because I don't like hotels. In fact, I hate living in hotels: the atmosphere there really brings me down. I like the freedom of living in my own apartment. Here you can spend your time as you wish -- eat, drink and listen to music."

On the pitch too he has had the sort of start he could barely have dreamed of. Russia are unbeaten in seven games and are yet to concede in winning all four of their World Cup qualifiers so far - although Monday's friendly against Brazil (4.6 to win the World Cup) at Stamford Bridge arguably provides their toughest test yet.

The postponement of Friday's game away to Northern Ireland means Russia have played a game fewer than Israel and Portugal but they are still four points clear. Although they must play Portugal away in June, they have breathing space.

Solidity is the key. Vassily Berezutsky has at times in the oats appeared as a weak link in the Russian line-up, but his partnership with Sergey Ignashevich in the centre of defence, along with the return to form after injury of the goalkeeper Igor Akinfeev, have been key.

So too has been the form of Igor Denisov: Russia have struggled over the past few years to replace Sergey Semak as he entered his mid-thirties but the Zenit St Petersburg midfielder is at last beginning to deliver on his immense promise. He is capricious and prone to swings of form, but at the moment he is probably one of the best five holding midfielders in Europe.

Brazil, meanwhile, are still struggling to find form. A poor build-up isn't necessarily a major problem for a tournament host but, as Luiz Felipe Scolari takes charge of his third game since replacing Mano Menezes as coach, they seem no closer to working out how best to arrange their array of attacking stars.

His two games so far have yielded a defeat to England before Thursday's 2-2 draw against Italy in Geneva, when they let a 2-0 lead slip. Other than seemingly settling on Dante and David Luiz as his preferred centre-back pairing, it was hard to see any progression from the England game to the Italy match.

Yet, bafflingly, Brazil are 1.63 to win and Russia 6.8, prices that reflect perception and history more than the reality. It's true that Capello's Russia haven't faced a really good side in form yet, but then Brazil certainly aren't in form.

Odds of 6.8 seems far too long to pass up and, given Russia's defensive record and the fact that Brazil have conceded two in each game so far, it's tempting to dabble with Correct Scores: 2-0 to Russia is 44.0 while 2-1 is 20.0.

Recommended Bets

Back Russia to win @ 6.8

Back Russia to win 2-0 @ 44.0