Ecuador v Germany: Weakened Germans are vulnerable

29May 2013



As Germany visit the sunny surroundings of Florida for this friendly match, Christian Crowther provides a preview and offers a few choice bets...


Ecuador v Germany, Wednesday 19:30, ESPN, Match Odds: Ecuador 5.4, Germany 1.79, The Draw 3.9


Due to the Champions League final involvement of many of Germany's top stars, national coach Joachim Low has named an unfamiliar looking squad for this trip to Florida  to play Ecuador.


The whole of Bayern Munich's treble-chasing contingent have been omitted in light of their DFB Pokal final date on Saturday. This experimental line-up will also be  without Real Madrid pairing Mesut Ozil and Sami Khedira due to remaining fixture commitments at the Spanish giants.


Meanwhile, most of Borussia Dortmund's Wembley starters will miss this trip to the US, ruling out Mats Hummels, Marco Reus, Marcel Schmelzer, Mario Gotze and Ilkay  Gundogan, though fringe players Sven Bender and Kevin Grosskreutz will be available for the second friendly against USA in Washington.


Given the untried nature of their opponents, one of the strongest Ecuadorian sides of recent years should smell European blood for a second such friendly in  succession, after an impressive 3-2 victory away to Portugal in February.


Sat only second to Argentina in the hugely competitive CONMEBOL qualifying group for World Cup 2014 consisting of nine teams, this Ecuador side are unbeaten in their  last nine games in competition and friendly football combined, winning the three in 2013.


Led by prolific talisman Christian Benitez and the likes of Manchester United's Antonio Valencia, this exciting Ecuador side have followed up that notable scalp in  Portugal by stuffing El Salvador 5-0 in a friendly and Paraguay 4-1 in a qualifier.


If Germany had their full squad out then their heavy favouritism would be justified but opposing them here against a well-oiled and uber-confident Ecuador side looks  the value bet.


Draw No Bet


As well as either laying the Germans or plumping for juicy odds on the Ecuador win, the cover of a Draw No Bet - meaning you get your stake back if the spoils are  shared - appeals greatly when looking at this fixture. On such a long unbeaten streak as this, head coach Reinaldo Rueda will be desperate for his players to keep the  momentum going.


To Score


He may not have cut the dijon at Manchester City but 24-year-old Lokomotiv Moscow striker Felipe Caicedo has no problem delivering the goods on the international  stage. 13 goals from just 38 caps - including five in the current qualifying campaign - for FIFA's tenth-best rated team in the world speaks for itself and he'll be  chief danger man, searching for a fourth goal in as many appearances for La Tri in the sunshine state.


Best Bet: Back Ecuador to win (draw no bet) @ 3.6

Other Recommended Bet: Back Felipe Caicedo to score @ 4.6



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Keywords: Ecuador, Germany, vulnerable

Source: Betfair

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