League One Play-Offs Betting: Defences to dominate in return leg at Griffin Park

6May 2013



After an excellent run of six winning bets from nine in the opening pair of League One play-off games, Alan Dudman is hoping to add to that tally with Monday's semi-final second leg between Brentford and Swindon Town.


Brentford v Swindon Town

League One play-off semi-final second leg

16:30 BST, Live on Sky Sports 1



Match odds:


Flip the teams around from away to home and you get exactly the same prices from the first leg. Including Saturday's game, Swindon have now failed to beat Brentford all season in their three clashes and trade at 3.40 for a victory at Griffin Park. Away from home the Robins picked up a healthy 35 points during the regular campaign.


Brentford at 2.12 would have been a slightly bigger price had it not been for Kevin O'Connor's 94th minute equaliser at the weekend to make it 1-1 in the first leg, but they have a mighty impressive record in West London - losing just three games all season on home soil.


Over the 90 minutes of the first leg, the two teams looked very evenly matched. Both looked nervous, both made plenty of errors. There were very few chances and once again the draw is the best trading option in-running at 3.50.



To qualify:


Uwe Rosler's Brentford are 1.52 to qualify, and 1.72 to lay with the tie being all square. Swindon who historically have had a good record in the play-offs are the outsiders at 2.42.



Opta Stats:


Brentford's astonishing knack of late strikes was revealed from the Opta Stats going into the play-offs. 20 of their goals in the regular season came in the final 15 minutes and their knack of rescuing points from losing positions [23 points) was a League One high. Rather fitting that O'Connor was able to convert a spot-kick to deny my outright bet of Swindon in the first-leg, when he should have taken the penalty against Doncaster a week before.


Under 2.5 goals:


Some people are expecting a more open game for the second leg on Monday, and their recent league clash in March saw Brentford win 2-1 at Griffin Park - despite being dominated by Swindon for 70 minutes. Both defences are very good and with so much at stake, neither will be too risky for fear of throwing away the chance.


Swindon over 46 League One games conceded a division low 39 goals, whilst Brentford conceded only 22 times in 23 matches (at home) during the regular campaign. The unders will be once again getting the treatment, and correct scores should be based around 0-0, 1-0 and a saver on 1-1, all should be traded in-play.


First goalscorer:


Brentford forward Clayton Donaldson netted 18 times this season, and scored in both games against Swindon. He is likely to partnered up front by Bradley Wright-Phillips in a 4-4-2. Donaldson is 7.0 whilst Wright-Phillips (who hit a scoring run at the end of the season) trades at 8.0.


Swindon winger Gary Roberts was the main threat in the first leg as an attacking option, whilst his string of corners caused Brentford some problems. Robins' midfielder Massimo Luongo who hit the opening goal on Saturday with a neat finish is available to back at around 10.0.


Half-time market:


Much underrated in my view, and if Swindon go with a 4-5-1 and press well, it should be a another very close 45 minutes, which is excellent for backers of the 2.12 price on offer. This also brings in the first half goals under 1.5 market.


Recommended bets:

Back under 2.5 goals @ 1.85

Back HT draw @ 2.12

Back the draw @ 3.50

Back 0-0 @ 8.0 and Brentford to win 1-0 @ 7.0



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Keywords: League One, Play-Off, Griffin Park

Source: Betfair

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