League Two Betting: Lay leaders against struggling AFC Wimbledon

19Apr 2013

Betfair

League Two is so tight at both ends that only one team are odds-on to win this weekend - leaders Gillingham. That provokes alarm bells with Ian Lamont, who believes AFC Wimbledon's more urgent need for points means their Kent hosts can be opposed...

Gillingham 1.8 v AFC Wimbledon 4.9; The Draw 3.75

It is easy to understand why Martin Allen's Gillingham, already promoted, are hot favourites to beat the Dons. A victory would crown them champions. But so would a draw.

And if there is one set of fans who know about being party-pooping underdogs it is those who follow AFC Wimbledon, who watched the old Crazy Gang from south London go up the divisions and win the FA Cup Final.

More to the point, the Dons need the points somewhat more urgently. Neil Ardley has only four of the five wins he set as a target and the south Londoners have slipped from what looked like safety to third bottom, in the tightest relegation race for years.

In all but one of the last nine seasons, their 49 points would have kept them up, mostly comfortably. Only in 2005-06 were two sides relegated on 49 points, Stockport having to set a high watermark of 52 to survive.

Luke Moore, the Dons' longest-serving player, netted twice at Exeter last weekend as they earned a first point in four games. What will encourage them is that five of the last six games at Priestfield have finished 1-0 (Gillingham losing two, but winning the last three). Tight games.

Three of AFC's last four games have been lost 1-0, before their 2-2 draw at Exeter which could give them the confidence to rekindle March's good form.

While the visitors do have three 1-0 away wins (from 11) in 2013, they have only four clean sheets in total. Thus they would probably have to score twice to win anywhere. At Gillingham that seems unlikely, but not impossible. The sides have faced each other three times and average four goals a game, say Opta. I see that average coming down.

The Dons' urgency for points, backed by a sold out away end, could fire them to a draw, making the lay the play.

Recommended Bet

Lay Gillingham @ 1.8

Plymouth 3.55 v Rotherham 2.24; The Draw 3.35

Plymouth boss John Sheridan says he will not be discussing whether he is staying, until this campaign has ended. There is no doubt that he has improved the Pilgrims, who have five wins and a draw from six at Home Park.

However, bubbles have to burst. It would take an extraordinary set of results to relegate them now. So, arguably, Rotherham's potential reward of being able to almost tie up automatic promotion is greater. They defeated in-form Bradford on Tuesday.

Rotherham boss Steve Evans will now insist they build on three straight wins that have featured eight goals. The Millers have always expected promotion this season and cannot afford to lose ground. Even Kieran Agard seems to have found his scoring boots, in the last two games.

Recommended Bet

Back Rotherham @ 2.24

Bradford 1.97 v Burton 4.2; The Draw 3.6

Burton's travel sickness has always threatened their bid for automatic promotion. Their horror show at Port Vale (7-1) in their last away game will weigh heavily psychologically, despite two clean sheets and victories since, especially as they conceded three in their previous trip, at Accrington.

While the visitors have picked up some decent results away in 2013 at the less in-form sides, seventh-placed Bradford have the huge motivation of keeping the pack at bay as they look to secure a play-off spot. This could be a warm-up for a game in a fortnight.

Rotherham conquered the Bantams on Tuesday, but midweek fixtures quite often merely spike a good form line. It was only a second defeat since their Capital One Cup final appearance. Phil Parkinson's men were undefeated in five at home since then.

Nahki Wells has 18 goals this season, four in the last four games, to resume his form. The hosts have not beaten the Brewers in seven attempts, Opta reveal. They can feed off any nerves shown by the Brewers and reward those who have backed them in from 2.1.

Recommended Bet

Back Bradford @ 1.97

Oxford 2.46 Rochdale 3.0; The draw 3.45

As much as Oxford's season seems to have fallen apart (four defeats in six matches), Rochdale's seems to have fired. Plus, Opta state, Oxford have lost three of their last five against Dale.

Perhaps Oxford's inability to reach for the play-offs was why Chris Wilder decided to give keeper Max Crocombe a chance at Dagenham, but keeping another clean sheet will be difficult against Keith Hill's men, who have scored in each of their last six outings. Both their last two wins have come on the road, so the Kassam will hold no fears. Their price is a juicy one, too.

Recommended Bet

Back Rochdale @ 3.0