League Two Betting: Maghoma has Burton flying

26Feb 2013

Betfair

Jacques Maghoma is on a hot streak of five goals in six games for Burton. Ian Lamont expects them to maintain their impressive home form and picks out the other best midweek bets from the fourth tier...

Burton 2.1 v Morecambe 3.85; The Draw 3.65

The Brewers have really started to maximise their scoring potential. They recently posted four in an away game (they have the division's fourth worst 'goals for' record on their travels), to reap an impressive tally of 10 in three matches. This is a chance to enhance what is already the division's best home form and cement a challenge for automatic promotion.

Seven straight home wins should become eight, with Jacques Maghoma (five goals in six games) in fine fettle.

His desire to play at a higher level is well documented. Would he stay if they went up? Burton are 4.0 in the promotion market. That would surely be a punt on them winning the play-offs, as Rotherham look capable of making the most of games in hand to clinch third.

Burton do look strong. Unbeaten in six is the division's longest current run, Opta say. But in fairness to Mark Bentley's Morecambe, the Shrimps have won their last three away games (against the varying strengths of Port Vale, York and Dagenham), having struggled on the road for quite a while. In that light, Burton's initial quote on Sunday of 1.93 seemed short.

The current 2.1 seems more reasonable. They should have the edge here, having conceded just four times in six games, compared to Morecambe's seven.

Even if Burton don't win, one thing seems certain - goals. Both teams have scored in double figures (Burton 13, Morecambe 10) over six games, so their games have reaped an average of 2.83 goals. Over 2.5 goals seems certain and over 3.5 a distinct possibility at 3.5.

Recommended Bets:

Back Burton @ 2.1

Back over 2.5 goals @ 2.0

Chesterfield 2.24 v Aldershot 3.7; The Draw 3.45

New boss Andy Scott says he has turned down several jobs since Rotherham sacked him last March, but they didn't feel right. As a Shots fan, my first thought was "that'll do me". There's no doubting he did a cracking job at Brentford, earning promotion from League Two. Nor is it doubted that the Millers' hotseat leaves no room for failure.

Aldershot are a less ambitious, more patient bunch. They are not going to over-stretch themselves financially, having learnt from the original club's demise 21 years ago next month. But they are desperate to maintain the fourth tier berth the original club held for most of those first 66 years, having clawed back up to it in 2008.

After victory in Scott's first game - making two wins on the spin - 3.7 might seem insulting, but they haven't won in five on the road, emphasise Opta. Chesterfield might have lost 1-0 at home on Saturday, but that was to leaders Gillingham, who recorded a club record 11th away win in a season. The Spireites offer chinks of light for the visitors of adding to their seven away draws, as Paul Cook's men have thrown in three 1-0 home defeats and two draws in the last 10 at the Proact Stadium.

Recommended Bet:

Lay Chesterfield @ 2.14

Port Vale 1.9 v Exeter 4.5; The Draw 3.85

Exeter paid the price for a shocking first half (conceding four) at Burton, as the best home record defeated the third best away record 4-2. Now the Grecians have a point to prove against another high-flying team - that they have won 10 times away for a reason. Paul Tisdale's efforts in Devon over 6.5 years have been noted by many, with Swindon wanting him, according to some.

Port Vale quite often score heavily at home, but after thumping Plymouth, Accrington and AFC Wimbledon they reverted to losing against Morecambe last time at Vale Park, making three defeats to nil in six at home. Perhaps even more relevantly, they have scored just the once - and conceded once - in three games. Exeter have scored seven in three. This looks like being a tight, low-scoring affair in which the short price on the hosts justifies opposing them.

Recommended Bet:

Lay Port Vale @ 1.9

AFC Wimbledon 2.36 v Plymouth 3.35; The draw 3.45

Opta rightly highlight some interesting stats on this match. The Dons have picked up the fewest points in League Two at home, while Plymouth have earned the fewest away (joint with Torquay). So, whose scales will that unbalance most? To find the answer, stir in more stats.

Opta add that Plymouth convert a mere 10.8% of their chances, while the respective sides' recent runs tip the balance to the hosts. Neil Ardley's men have earned seven points in a week - from just three games - while John Sheridon's side have mustered eight points from eight games in 2013. The Dons have 16 points from 10 in that time. Argyle have not even scored in four of their last seven games. If ever there was a stats-driven wager, a home win on the Dons has to be it at what stacks up to a generous price.

Recommended Bet:

Back AFC Wimbledon @ 2.36