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Lee Dixon: I'm backing goals as Barca hunt down Milan's first leg lead

 

AC Milan shocked Barcelona with a 2-0 win in the first leg but, while it's easy to imagine the Spanish giants scoring the goals they need, can they hold the visitors  out? Lee Dixon doesn't think so...

 

What a tie! Tuesday night's game at the Nou Camp is perfectly poised and could provide us with a Champions League classic.

 

Milan hold the whip hand following that 2-0 win in the first leg, but Barcelona have not become a poor team overnight and there will be plenty of punters willing to  take the 2.5 on the Primera Division leaders going through.

 

We know that Barca can overturn the first leg deficit. Their attacking riches are the envy of club football and they have scored an astonishing 85 goals in 27 league  games this year. No other team in Spanish football can rival that total - their nearest rivals are Real Madrid with 66.

 

Of course, it helps when you have a genius in the side and Lionel Messi is responsible for 39 of the 85 goals. For all that though, the little Argentinian was off form  in the first leg, failing to get a shot on target. They need more from him at the Nou Camp.

 

And despite the obvious quality in the Spanish side, it's easy to see why punters have made the Italian side favourites to progress. Their form in Serie A this year  has been very impressive, and their first leg lead offers a handy cushion.

 

Milan's game plan will surely be to frustrate Barca and play on the break. Other teams - Celtic this year, Chelsea last year - have enjoyed notable success with that  tactic.

 

It seems ridiculous to criticise Barcelona but they appear to have one method of attack. While they're the best team in the world when it comes together, they don't  appear to have a plan b when it doesn't. If AC can keep it tight through the middle and force Barcelona out wide they have a chance of riding out the storm and making  the last eight.

 

The stats are not in their favour though - Opta tell us that AC Milan haven't kept a clean sheet in their last eight away games in the Champions League.

 

But there are similarly damning stats about Barca - the Nou Camp has not seen a home clean sheet in the last six knockout matches played in Catalonia.

 

Goals seem certain then, so I will take a chance on Both Teams to Score at around 1.9. Milan have enough pace on the break to beat the Barca defence at least once, and you just have to fancy the home side to get on the scoresheet.

 

The qualification market is too risky for me. A Milan goal would seemingly kill it dead but would you really put it past Barca to score the four they would then need?  It's an in-play option perhaps.

 

Sit back and enjoy this one - it could be spectacular!

 

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Back Both Teams to Score @ 1.9

 

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