Lee Dixon: Underdogs Dortmund are value for a Champions League upset

24May 2013

Bajnokok Ligája


The Champions League final will be the fifth meeting of the season between Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund. All of those clashes have been close but the Betfair  markets point heavily towards a Bayern win and that makes an upset win the value bet, according to Lee Dixon...


The cream of German football comes to Wembley on Saturday and we look set for a classic Champions League final.


Jupp Heynckes all-conquering Bayern Munich have already wrapped up the Bundesliga and can take a big step towards a treble if they win on Saturday with VFB Stuttgart  awaiting them in the German cup final on June 1. After a season in which they have lost just three matches - two in the Champions League and one in the league - it's  easy to see why they are just 1.78 to win in 90 minutes and 1.42 to win the trophy.


But, in Borussia Dortmund, they face a foe they know very well, and one of the few sides that has troubled them in recent times. Opta spell it out for us - Dortmund  are undefeated against Bayern in their last six Bundesliga meetings with four wins and two draws. However, those two stalemates came this year with Munich also winning  clashes in the German Super Cup and German Cup both by one goal margins.


All four games were tight then, and it's easy to see the fifth fixture of the season between these two being as close as the four that came before.


Though it would be easy to make Bayern the bet, on value alone you must have a wager on Borussia Dortmund. Jurgen Klopp's men are 5.0 to win in 90 minutes with the draw a 4.1 shot.


The two teams are set out in similar formations and in many ways Dortmund are like a mini Munich with one striker supported by three very dangerous attacking  midfielders. Unfortunately, the Bayern-bound Mario Gotze will miss the game through injury. That is a big loss as all neutrals will have been hoping to see the hugely  talented 20-year-old lining up against the club who have paid €37m for his services from next season.


Gotze will be one of many shining stars in the Bayern camp when he joins, but one I'm particularly looking forward to watching on the Wembley turf is Thomas Mueller.  There are plenty of headline-grabbers in the Bayern team and the 23-year-old German international is sometimes overlooked but he has a habit of scoring important  goals.


Mueller is probably my favourite player at the moment. With his socks rolled down around his ankles he reminds me of an old schoolmate, and I just love the energy he  brings to the Bayern attack. I'll be backing Mueller to score a goal at Wembley at around 3.2.


We know that these two clubs have produced four close games this season but the market fancies a few goals and I'm in agreement. Only one of those matches went over  2.5 goals but that option is just 1.8 on Betfair. Rather than take that price I will go a little shorter with a back of both teams to score at 1.75 - it's a bet that would have been a winner in three of the four fixtures between these two this season.


History is beckoning Bayern towards an unprecedented treble and they are rightly favourites to land the middle leg of that, but Klopp knows how to get the better of  the giants of German football and that could set up a classic.


The odds do not represent Dortmund's chances of pulling off an upset so let's take a chance on the underdogs having their day under the floodlights at Wembley.


Recommended Bets

Back Borussia Dortmund to win in 90 minutes @ 5.0

Back Thomas Mueller to score @ 3.2

Back both teams to score @ 1.75



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Keywords: Lee Dixon, underdog, Dortmund, value, Champions League

Source: Betfair

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