Newcastle to grab a draw at the Lane

 

There looks to be some pretty evenly matched games in the Premier League this weekend and after yielding a near 15pt profit from last weeks' picks, Paul Robinson is forecasting draws again. Here are his selections:

 

Tottenham v Newcastle

Back the draw @ 3.75 (11/4)  

Back a 1-1 correct score @ 7.0 (6/1)  

 

Tottenham face Newcastle at the Lane in the Saturday lunchtime game, live on Sky Sports at 12:45, and I think that the Magpies can continue their recent revival and take a point from the game.

 

Spurs ended a run of three successive draws with victory away at West Brom at the weekend but they lost striker, Jermain Defoe, to injury and he will be a big miss for an already toothless Tottenham side. The North Londoners may well sit in fourth place, just one point behind Chelsea, but the goals have dried up in recent weeks - four scored in their last five in all competitions - and they've only netted more than once on one occasion in their last four at home in the league.

 

Their form is still pretty solid though and Andre Villas-Boas will take heart from improved defence displays, which seem to have come about since William Gallas was dropped from the starting XI.

 

Newcastle have had a poor campaign compared to last year but since getting Yohan Cabaye back from injury and signing a new contingent of French players in the January window, they have put back to back victories together and climbed to 15th in the league.

 

The Geordies came from behind to beat Chelsea 3-2 last time out, with new boy, Moussa Sissoko starring with two goals. They've also avoided defeat in their last two on the road - drawing at Norwich and beating Aston Villa - and Alan Pardew's side will be full of confidence ahead of this fixture.

 

The draw looks the value bet here and with Tottenham games having been quite low scoring recently, a 1-1 correct score at 7.0 (6/1) is definitely worth an investment.

 

 

Sunderland v Arsenal

Back the draw @ 3.5 (5/2)  

Back under 2.5 goals @ 1.85 (17/20)  

 

Sunderland and Arsenal meet at 3pm on Saturday and, like the Spurs match, I think it will be a low scoring draw.

 

Martin O'Neill's side saw their three match unbeaten run in the league ended at Reading at the weekend but they should prove a much harder proposition back on home soil. The Black Cats have won three of their last five at the Stadium Of Light, with the sole defeat coming against Tottenham. They kept four clean sheets in that period and beat Reading, Manchester City and West Ham.

 

Danny Graham has been signed to bolster the attack and O'Neill has suggested that he could change his formation and tactics to accommodate him. A strike partnership with Steven Fletcher may perhaps bear fruit, but it remains to be seen if the Northern Irishman actually deploys the pair in tandem.

 

Arsenal edged past Stoke in their last game and showed character by coming from 2-0 down at home to Liverpool prior to that. It's now four unbeaten for Arsene Wenger's side, but things aren't so rosy away from the Emirates.

 

The Gunners have won just four of 12 on the road this term and two of those came in their opening quartet of fixtures. Five of the dozen have been draws and while they've been free scoring at home, Reading away aside, goals have been hard to come by on their travels. They've netted one or less in seven of their last eight, firing blanks at Carrow Road and Villa Park.

 

This has all the makings of a stalemate to me, so the draw 3.5 (5/2) and under 2.5 goals at 1.85 (17/20) has to be the safest play.

 

Aston Villa v West Ham

Back the draw @ 3.2 (11/5)  

Back over 2.5 goals @ 1.95 (19/20)  

 

 

Super Sunday kicks off at 13:30 on Sky Sports One as West Ham travel to Villa Park in the battle of Claret and Blues. Like the two matches above, I think the points will be shared.

 

Aston Villa were denied a vital victory thanks to a late Everton fightback but at least it's a performance that they can build on. Paul Lambert's side are currently in 19th place, two points adrift of safety with 13 games to go. They've only lost two of their last five, but the other three were draws and they led in all of them.

 

The problem for Villa has been at the back as with 49 conceded, they have the worst defensive record in the division. Set piece defending has been a huge issue for them so I have my concerns about how they will cope with Andy Carroll, but they do at least have a striker in Christian Benteke who is in fine form at the other end of the field.

 

West Ham picked up their first victory in five at the weekend by defeating Swansea 1-0 and the three points pushed them up to 11th in the table, nine points clear of Wigan in 18th. The aforementioned, Carroll, was making his first start since a  leg injury and he marked the occasion with the winner.

 

Sam Allardyce's side have lost their last four away from Upton Park and they've conceded 11 goals in their last three. They have to make use of their set pieces if they are to pick up a result here and it's certain that they will be working on them in training all week.

 

Villa just can't seem to win at the moment so a draw looks the most likely outcome to me, but I'm even more confident about the game going over 2.5 goals. Eight of the home side's last nine in the league have all gone over as have West Ham's last three away from home. At a shade under evens, it can't be left un-backed.

 

Recommended Bets

Back a Tottenham v Newcastle draw @ 3.75 (11/4)  

Back a 1-1 correct score in Tottenham v Newcastle @ 7.0 (6/1)  

Back a Sunderland v Arsenal draw @ 3.5 (5/2)  

Back under 2.5 goals in Sunderland v Arsenal @ 1.85 (17/20)

Back an Aston Villa v West Ham draw @ 3.2 (11/5)  

Back over 2.5 goals in Aston Villa v West Ham @ 1.95 (19/20)

 

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