Non-League Previews: Harriers set to soar to first leg advantage in playoff semi-finals

23Apr 2013

Betfair

Alan Alger takes a look at the midweek Blue Square Bet Premier Play-Off Semi-Final 1st Legs. He's backing league runners-up Kidderminster to draw first blood against Wrexham. He also fancies Grimsby to gain an advantage to take to Newport...

Wrexham v Kidderminster Harriers

SBP Play-Off Semi-Final 1st leg

Live On Premier Sports

Tues 23rd April 7.45pm

Kidderminster Harriers went close to a remarkable comeback in the Blue Square Bet Premier title race having been as big as 250/1 after just three wins in their first 17 games. To then press Mansfield to the final day of the season took a run of incredible form. Those stats show a phenomenal 25 wins in their last 29 league matches.

Steve Burr's side are also unbeaten against the three other teams who have reached this extended part of the season. They have absolutely nothing to fear in a two- legged semi-final against a Wrexham side who are in the worst form of the quartet. In recent weeks Wrexham did register a thrilling comeback victory at home to eventual champions Mansfield and they won the FA Trophy at Wembley but there are still a number of things to suggest they won't be making the final here. They won only three of their last ten league games, failing to score in half of them. Andy Morrell's team have also struggled against the better sides in the league, with just six wins from 22 games against their fellow top-half sides.

In contrast Kidderminster have won all six of their matches away at their fellow top seven and failed to score only once in their last 18 matches. Historically Wrexham also have the ten-year jinx of the fifth placed club, a position from which no side has ever won the Conference play-offs. The omens from this season also point to Kidderminster too, with a league double over the Red Dragons. We should be backing them at an odds-against price to get a first leg advantage from their trip to The Racecourse.

Grimsby Town v Newport County

BSBP Play-Off Semi-Final 1st leg

Live On Premier Sports

Weds 24th April 7.45pm

Grimsby Town secured a nice winner for us on the final day of the regular league season by beating a weakened Newport County side 3-0. Although it will be a very different away side that turn up here I think the result will be the same, but maybe not the margin. The market for the match is very hard to explain. Essentially we were getting a far bigger price on Saturday for Grimsby to beat a Newport reserve team, than we are getting for them to beat a Newport side back to full strength.

With that in mind, stakes should be reduced accordingly, but there is still plenty of evidence to suggest that Grimsby can gain the upper hand from this first leg at their Blundell Park home. The Mariners have by far the best defensive record from the regular season, conceding an average of just 0.83 goals per game. 13 of Grimsby's 23 wins in the league this season were registered without their opponents scoring a goal. Striker Liam Hearn has been welcomed back into the team after managing just five appearances due to an Achilles tendon injury, he got back on the scoresheet on Saturday and that's a warning to the rest of the teams in these play-offs.

Newport blazed a trail at the start of the season when their main striker Aaron O'Connor was firing on all cylinders. His own injury woes have curtailed his form and his return of just four goals in his last 21 appearances will be giving manager Justin Edinburgh a headache. I'll be backing Grimsby to strike a killer blow here and then rely on their defensive form to complete the job in South Wales.

Recommended Bet

Back Grimsby Town at 2.15