Premier League Betting: Liverpool v Everton

5May 2013

England - Premier League


This season's Merseyside derby at Anfield also has the battle for a sixth-placed Premier League finish at stake. Dan Fitch thinks it will end in a draw that will suit Everton more than Liverpool.


Liverpool v Everton

Sunday, KO 13:30, Live on Sky Sports 1


Merseyside derbies don't need trifling matters such as league positions to make them important, but it's undeniable that the situation that currently exists between Liverpool and Everton, adds a certain frisson to this encounter.


Seventh-placed Liverpool need a win to reel sixth-placed Everton back in. A draw would see the Blues almost certain to win this season's battle for local bragging rights, while an Everton win would be enough to ensure it.


Yes, the stakes are pretty high for this one and as the league table suggests, Liverpool and Everton are two very evenly matched teams these days.


The Toffees have a poor record in this fixture in the Premier League era, even allowing for the fact that for many years Liverpool were much better than them. The Opta stats tell us that Everton are without a win at Anfield in their last 12 games, with five of their last eight games ending in defeat.


That perhaps explains why a team that are quite comfortably ahead of Liverpool in the league, are priced at 4.3 for victory (that and the fact that Liverpool's glorious history ensures that they are always a much shorter price than they really should be these days).


Liverpool are 1.97 to taste victory, with the draw a tempting 3.75. Their 6-0 drubbing of Newcastle might suggest that they will not miss Luis Suarez, but the truth is that any team would miss a player of his quality and that Everton are a much tougher nut to crack than a Newcastle side in free-fall.


Everton have not been conceding or scoring many of late, which would ordinarily make the 2.14 for under 2.5 goals against a Suarez-less Liverpool, a tempting proposition. However, due to the frenetic nature of these type of games, solid defending is at a premium. It only takes one goal to spark an end-to-end ding-dong.


Therefore, I can see goals in this and recommend the 1.86 on overs. It's a safer bet than the 1.69 on offer for both teams to score, considering that David Moyes' Everton side have often froze on this occasion.


So who prey tell will score these goals? With Suarez out of the running, Daniel Sturridge looks a decent bet at 2.3. He's scored seven goals in 11 Premier League games for Liverpool. That's pretty prolific considering that his career at Anfield has been somewhat stop-start so far, due to injuries and substitute appearances.


For Everton, Marouane Fellaini has been played deeper of late, but his price of 3.5 does not reflect this. Better value is Steven Pienaar. He's not thought of as a goalscoring midfielder, but his total of six league goals this season is his best ever return and he is available at 5.5.


Earlier this season the two sides fought out a 2-2 draw, despite the fact that Liverpool were 2-0 up within 20 minutes. Everton have scored the last goal in four of their last seven games and seem overpriced at 2.5 to score last, in what seems a pretty 50/50 match.


Recommended Bets

Back the draw at 3.75

Back Pienaar to score at 5.5

Back Everton to score last at 2.5



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Keywords: Premier League Betting, Liverpool, Everton

Source: Betfair

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