Premier League Relegation Betting: Opta stats point to Sunderland sliding out of the top-flight

28Mar 2013

England - Premier League

 

With a set of exclusive Opta stats at hand, Jaymes Monte looks through the main relegation contenders and related betting...

 

QPR

Current Position - 20th

Games Remaining - 8

Relegation Odds - 1.2

Queens Park Rangers staved off relegation on the final day of last season having picked up a total of 15 points from their final 10 games. The Rs will need an equivalent points haul from just eight remaining games in order to reach 38 points this term, with the average points tally of the team finishing 17th over the past 17 seasons being 38.5.

 

Over the same 17-year data pool the team finishing in 18th position have averaged just 36 points, while in 1997, 1998 and 2003 a total of 40 points was not enough to stay in the Premier League.

 

Rangers fans can draw some encouragement from the Opta fact that tells us that only Manchester United average more Premier League points in the month of May - the Rs have won six and drawn four of their 12 May games at an average of 1.83 points per game. But they'll need to up their April average of 1.26 points per game if they are still going to be in with a shout going into their final three fixtures.

 

 

Reading

Current Position - 19th

Games Remaining - 8

Relegation Odds - 1.09

If the betting and Opta stats are to be believed then Nigel Adkins' task to save Reading from relegation is already a forlorn one. The Royals average only 1.10 points per game in April and an even more miserly 1.00 points per game in May. With only seven games to go after this weekend's (the final weekend of March) trip to Arsenal that would mean little more than seven points to be added to their current total of 23.

 

Perhaps the most damming statistic of all, however, is that only eight teams in the last 17 Premier League seasons have avoided the drop having kept five or fewer clean sheets. To this point Reading have mustered just three.

 

 

Wigan

Current Position - 18th

Games Remaining - 9

Relegation Odds - 2.24

The Premier League's perennial relegation escapees don't have quite as good a record in the final months of the season as you might expect. In the month of April the Latics average just 0.97 points per game, with only seven wins from 32 matches. Although that average points tally is improved upon in the month of May when they've gained an average of 1.41 points per game throughout their Premier League history.

 

One thing that the statistics can't help us with is the effect that an FA Cup semi-final will have on an already crowded schedule. At odds-against for the drop there could be some value in this being the year that Wigan don't perform their now trademark Houdini act.

 

 

Aston Villa

Current Position - 17th

Games Remaining - 8

Relegation Odds - 3.0

Although they finished 16th last season this is relatively unfamiliar territory for Aston Villa, so the stats may be somewhat skewed. April is generally a happy month for the Villans who average 1.52 points per game in the penultimate month of the season having won 39 and drawn 40 of their 103 games played.

 

May hasn't been quite as profitable with an average of just 1.26 points per game, but if they can maintain that impressive April record then they should be almost safe by the time it comes to the final countdown.

 

 

Southampton

Current Position - 16th

Games Remaining - 8

Relegation Odds - 9.4

Southampton have twice in the last 17 seasons escaped relegation by finishing in 17th position, just above the drop line. In 1996 they did so with 38 points after picking up 13 points from their final 10 games and then in 1999 they took 15 points from their final dectet of fixtures to finish the season on 41 points.

 

Should they maintain their average of 1.16 points per game in April and 1.28 per game in May then they should, as the betting suggests, have enough to survive again this campaign.

 

 

Sunderland

Current Position - 15th

Games Remaining - 8

Relegation Odds - 4.3

Sunderland's dire form coupled with a demanding run of fixtures suggests Championship football is a distinct possibility for the Black Cats next season.

 

And the bare statistics only add further credence to that belief. None of the current Premier League sides average fewer than Sunderland's 0.84 points per game in the month of May, while the 0.98 points per game that they average in April is only marginally better.

 

Sunderland are also one of the aforementioned trio of sides that have been relegated with 40 points or more on the board. In 1998 they went down in 18th position having taken only 11 points from their final 10 games.

 

Recommended Bets:

Back Wigan to be relegated @ 2.24

Back Sunderland to be relegated @ 4.3

 

Bet HERE

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Keywords: Premier League, Relegation, Betting, Sunderland

Source: Betfair

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