Premier League Tips: Chelsea to ease past Southampton

27Mar 2013

England - Premier League

After a break for the internationals, the Premier League is back underway and with the season coming to a head, Paul Robinson has spied some value away wins. Here are his selections:

Southampton v Chelsea

Back Chelsea @ 2.1 (11/10)

Back Chelsea/Chelsea in the HT/FT market @ 3.5 (5/2)

Southampton meet Chelsea on Saturday looking to build on their 3-1 win over Liverpool but I think all that result has done is given us a better price on a Chelsea victory.

The Saints dominated Brendan Rodgers' side from start to finish in their last game before the international break but I'd argue that The Reds were terrible as opposed to Southampton being brilliant. Before that result, Mauricio Pochettino's men had been held by Norwich and lost to both Newcastle and QPR.

They've won just two of their last seven at St Mary's and that includes a 1-5 hammering from this weekend's opponents in the FA Cup. Southampton are only four points clear of safety and Wigan have a game in hand over them, so while they are badly in need of points, I can't see them getting any here.

Chelsea are still clinging on to third spot and are through to the quarter-finals of both the FA Cup and Europa League. That's not bad for a club who are in apparent crisis and have a manager that almost all of the supporters want gone. Rafa will of course leave at the end of the season but the Spaniard loves to prove people wrong and I just have a sneaky suspicion that The Blues will go on a bit of a run from now till the middle of May.

One of the reasons why Chelsea are odds-against is because they have a huge FA Cup replay with Manchester United little over 48 hours after this match. Clearly the United tie will be deemed more important than the league game but Benitez has a big squad to choose from and I would only be concerned, albeit mildly, if Juan Mata starts on the bench at St Mary's.

The Blues look an excellent bet at 2.1 (11/10) to me and I also recommend backing Chelsea/Chelsea in the HT/FT market at 3.5 (5/2) as I can envisage them wanting to put the game to bed early, so they can rest a couple of key players for most of the second half.

Swansea v Tottenham

Back Tottenham @ 2.25 (5/4)

Back Tottenham to win 2-1 @ 8.5 (15/2)

Swansea and Spurs clash in Wales at the weekend with both clubs looking to bounce back from two Premier League defeats in a row. Swansea have home advantage, but Spurs have the quality and should be backed to get all three points.

I've criticised Swansea a number of times this season - sometimes rightly, sometimes wrongly. They have done better than I expected and given the points they already have on the board, they should finish in the top half, and they of course won the Capital One Cup.

That cup victory is key as since the 5-0 demolition of Bradford in the final, they struggled past Newcastle in a game that they didn't deserve to win and then lost to West Brom and Arsenal. It seems that the players have gone into holiday mode already and while Michael Laudrup will be trying to keep them motivated, I don't see much hunger there at the moment.

Tottenham slumped to a pair of defeats in the league and almost blew a 3-0 aggregate lead over Inter in Europe. The international break came at the right time for Andre Villas-Boas as he can re-group and try and avoid the fate that Harry Redknapp suffered last season.

That fate was of course Spurs blowing a huge advantage over bitter rivals Arsenal in the final few months of the campaign. The Gunners are still four points behind Tottenham, but they do have a game in hand. Victory over Swansea on Saturday is vital as Arsenal play Reading at home in what looks to be a nailed on three points. If the gap is reduced any further, Arsene Wenger's side will know that their destiny is in their own hands and that will spur them on even more.

Gareth Bale has had his injury issues with Wales this week but if he comes through their game with Croatia unscathed, he will be looking to add to his impressive tally of 16 league goals this year, 11 of which came away from White Hart Lane.

Spurs can't be left un-backed at 2.25 (5/4) to grab a vital win here and I would also have a punt on them to win 2-1 at 8.5 (15/2).

Everton v Stoke

Back Stoke @ 7.0 (6/1)

Back Stoke to win 1-0 @ 15.0 (14/1)

Everton host Stoke in the live tea time kick off on ESPN on Saturday and I think there is value in backing Stoke against a depleted Everton side.

There won't be too many statistics used in my preview for this game as Everton have been good at home this season and Stoke have been in dire form away. My reasoning will largely be based on the players on show - or the players missing for Everton.

Steven Pienaar and Marouane Fellaini are both suspended. Pienaar has linked superbly with Leighton Baines down the left hand side for Everton since the South African's return to the club and while Pienaar hasn't looked at his best in recent times, Baines certainly performs better with him in the team. Fellaini has been a monster for The Toffees, especially since his shift to the forward line. He provides an out ball as he holds it up so well and he is fantastic at linking the play, as well as scoring goals.

Tim Howard and Phil Jagielka could also be sidelined through injury and I wouldn't have much faith in Jan Mucha dealing well with Stoke set plays if he's between the sticks. Johnny Heitinga could play regardless of Jagielka's inclusion or not and he has proven time and time again this season that he is there to be bullied - something which Stoke excel at.

Tony Pullis will of course know all this and he will send his side out with the message to get stuck into Everton and not let them get into their stride like they did against Manchester City. Shawcross and Huth should be able to cope with an out of form Jelavic, or if Anichebe is given the nod, a couple of firm challenges from the centre halves could see 'Big Vic' go into his shell.

Stoke are a massive value bet for me at 7.0 (6/1) and I'd also recommend backing them to win 1-0 in the correct score market at 15.0 (14/1) which coincidently, was the score in this fixture last season.