Redknapp to get something at his old club

 

There are some pretty one sided looking matches in the Premier League this weekend but Paul Robinson has managed to identify some value. Here are his Fixed Odds Selections:

 

Southampton v QPR

 

Back the draw @ 3.6 (13/5)  

Back QPR draw no bet @ 3.0 (2/1)

 

Southampton and QPR meet at St Mary's on Saturday afternoon and despite Rangers being 10 points behind The Saints I think this match should be pretty even.

 

Mauricio Pochettino has started promisingly since taking over from Nigel Adkins back in January and while he's only registered one win from five, they have been playing very well. Southampton should really have put Everton away at St Mary's, performed with huge credit at Old Trafford in a 2-1 loss and conceded a last minute equaliser at the DW against Wigan.

 

On Sunday they went down 4-2 at St James' Park but they did have plenty of chances to score more. My concern though is that Pochettino has started to tinker with his starting XI as he dropped both Jason Puncheon and Danny Fox for the Newcastle game despite them both playing well in the 3-1 victory over Man City previously.

 

QPR lost 2-0 at home to Man United at the weekend but it's games like this one that are the most important to them. Victory would see them reduce the gap with The Saints to seven points and while they would still be at the bottom of the table, they would have huge impetus ahead of a kind run of fixtures against their rivals.

 

Southampton are the favourites heading into this match, make no mistake, however their odds-on quote is wide of the mark in my opinion. It's results not performances that count in this league and the team from the South Coast have only won four times at home all season. The value is definitely in the draw at 3.6 (13/5) and I would also advise backing QPR in the DNB market to cover yourself if Harry Redknapp gets one over on his old side, while getting your stake returned if it does indeed finish in the predicted draw.

 

Swansea v Newcastle

 

Back Newcastle @ 3.3 (23/10)  

Back Newcastle to win 2-1 @ 10.0 (9/1)  

 

Capital One Cup winners Swansea face Newcastle in the league at the weekend and I'm taking the in-form Geordies to repeat last season's win at the Liberty Stadium.

 

Swansea are on a crest of a wave after thrashing Bradford 5-0 at Wembley. Boss Michael Laudrup and star player Michu are getting most of the plaudits but the whole team has performed with credit this term and proved some doubters, myself included, very wrong. They are up in ninth place in the league and have European football secured for next year thanks to the cup win.

 

I just have a feeling though that they may not have completely focused on this match with Newcastle and it could be a good time to play them. Similarly for Liverpool before the final, Newcastle could benefit from the players not having 100% concentration on the match in hand. Obviously they won't be playing as weak an XI as they did at Anfield, but even with a full strength line up, The Swans have only won five times at home in the league this season and they haven't kept a clean sheet in any of their last half dozen.

 

Newcastle are beginning to turn their campaign around after suffering from injuries and fixture congestion. The Magpies have not only welcomed back key men like Yohan Cabaye and Steven Taylor, but they have added to their squad with players like Moussa Sissoko, Mathieu Debuchy and  Yoan Gouffran who have all hit the ground running.

 

Alan Pardew has guided his side through to the last 16 of the Europa League and they have climbed to 13th in the Premier League thanks to three wins from their last four fixtures. They may only have one away victory to their name this year but they certainly know how to score on the road as they've fired only three blanks, and with defensive reinforcements now in place, they've conceded just three in three.

 

Newcastle look a very tempting price to add to their win at Swansea last April and the 3.3 (23/10) is definitely worth an investment. I also like the look of a correct score bet of 1-2 at 10.0 (9/1) as both teams look likely to score at least once.

 

Wigan v Liverpool

 

Back Liverpool @ 1.75 (3/4)  

Back Over 3.5 goals @ 2.75 (7/4)  

 

My final selections of the week come at the DW Stadium as Wigan host Liverpool in the Saturday evening tea time game, live on ESPN at 17:30. The Reds are odds-on for this one, and I strongly fancy them to get the job done.

 

Wigan put back to back wins together last week for the first time since August as they added to their FA Cup victory at Huddersfield by thrashing Reading in the league. This is usually around the time of the season that Roberto Martinez's men put a strong run together that moves them clear of the relegation zone, and on face value, it appears that history is starting to repeat itself.

 

I have my concerns though. Huddersfield and Reading are pretty poor sides and while The Latics despatched of them with ease, Liverpool will be another test entirely. Also, in previous years Wigan have had a star player like Charles N'Zogbia or Victor Moses come to the fore, and while they do have Arouna Koné, his two goals at the Madejski were only his seventh and eighth in Wigan colours.

 

Liverpool went within a whisker of getting past Zenit in the Europa League last week but it wasn't to be as they finished one goal short of the required margin. Brendan Rodgers made a poor decision in that match to bring on Shelvey and Assaidi just after the third goal went in but history has shown that the Northern Irishman has learnt from his mistakes since being appointed Liverpool manager.

 

In their last two away games in the league, The Reds have drawn 2-2 with both Arsenal and Manchester City, and they probably should have won both matches after leading and being the better side. The goal scoring problems of last season have subsided and 'Pool are actually the fifth highest scorers in the division with 49 goals, an average of nearly two per game.

 

The introduction of Daniel Sturridge has helped take the burden off Luis Suarez's shoulders and the attacking three are much more fluid with the ex Chelsea player in the mix. He was sorely missed in the 2-0 defeat against West Brom and he should pose plenty of problems for a Wigan defence that has conceded two or more in 11 of their 13 league games this season.

 

I can't see past a Liverpool victory in this one, but if you don't like backing odds-on away from home, then over 3.5 goals at 2.75 (7/4) is a big price considering that four of Liverpool's last six on the road have achieved it, as have four of Wigan's last five at home.

 

Recommended Bets

Back a Southampton v QPR draw @ 3.6 (13/5)

Back QPR in the draw no bet market v Southampton @ 3.0 (2/1)

Back Newcastle to beat Swansea @ 3.3 (23/10)  

Back Newcastle to beat Swansea 2-1 @ 10.0 (9/1)  

Back Liverpool to beat Wigan @ 1.75 (3/4)  

Back Over 3.5 goals in Wigan v Liverpool @ 2.75 (7/4)  

 

Prices are based on our Fixed Odds product, so any winnings are exempt from commission.

 

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