Spanish GP Betting: Rosberg takes pole but Raikkonen a contender for victory

11May 2013

It's two poles in two races for Mercedes and Nico Rosberg, but James Frankland expects Lotus' Flying Finn to position himself in front on race day...

For the second race in succession Nico Rosberg led the way in qualifying, securing top stop for tomorrow's Spanish Grand Prix and outpacing teammate Lewis Hamilton by a tenth of a second in the process. As a result Rosberg makes himself the statistical favourite to win the race, with 17 of the 22 polesitters going on to win races on the Catalunya circuit.

Rosberg can be backed, if you're feeling brave, at 7.8 to become the 18th winner from pole in Barcelona, the market clearly not forgetting what happened three weeks ago in Bahrain when the German plummeted from pole to ninth place at the end of the race. Hamilton could benefit but is likely to fall foul of the same problems with tyre wear, reflected in his winning odds of 6.6, though he could feature in the podium celebrations for the third time this season and can be backed at 2.32 to be spraying champagne following the chequered flag.

Championship leader Sebastian Vettel lines up third, with Kimi Raikkonen steering his Lotus to fourth on the grid, while the Ferrari duo had just one thousandth of a second separating them on the third row, Fernando Alonso ahead by the equivalent of about 2cm over the full 2.9mile lap. I think the winning driver is going to come from this group, and the market appears to have discounted Massa from the running with odds of 42.0 to win, so let's look at Vettel 3.6, Raikkonen 4.5, and Alonso at 5.4.

Even if you accept that Mercedes are going to go backwards as in Bahrain, I don't think Alonso has quite got enough this weekend to challenge for victory, so let's look at the two title leaders, Vettel and Raikkonen. Sebastian is the only man to have won two races this year and Red Bull's aerodynamic advantage will come into play here, but Lotus' trump card is their ability to keep tyres alive for longer and, no matter how aerodynamically slick your car is, it's tyres that are dictating results so I am going for Raikkonen to take victory tomorrow. Kimi's stablemate Romain Grosjean should also be backed to progress into the Top Six - he only needs to make up a single spot in the race, having qualified seventh, and you could get a respectable return by backing him at 1.8.

Paul di Resta is another man worth watching, the Force India driver is quietly having a good season and outpacing his more experienced teammate Adrian Sutil thus far. Having posted tenth quickest time overall, the Scot will be hoping to continue his trend of going forward in races and is available at 3.25 to place in the Top Six.

Fastest Lap isn't a market I touch on too regularly as it is very much dependent on circumstances, but a small trend is developing of late with Vettel posting the fastest laps in both China and Bahrain, so he could be worth backing to repeat the trick in Barcelona at 3.65. For the most aerodynamically-efficient car on a track which brings those qualities to the fore, I think those are good odds.

Recommended Bets

Kimi Raikkonen to win 4.5

Romain Grosjean to finish in the Top Six 1.8

Sebastian Vettel to set fastest lap 3.65