The Big Match Tactical View: Ajax v Manchester City

The first-ever competitive meeting between these clubs is an interesting tactical battle - Michael Cox looks at Roberto Mancini's probable strategy. After picking up  just one point from their opening two Champions League matches, Manchester City really need to get their European campaign going with a win in Amsterdam.  Unfortunately, they must do it without some key players. David Silva's form has dipped since this time last season but remains their biggest creative threat, while the absences of Javi Garcia and Jack Rodwell wouldn't be a huge problem individually, but losing two players from the same position means Roberto Mancini has some  difficult decisions to make in the centre of the pitch. Maicon is also injured.

 

 

First, Mancini will have looked at Ajax's style. As always, they play a high defensive line, pass the ball out from the back and generally keep a 4-3-3 shape - De Boer  often used a three-man defence last season, but this is unlikely against City.

 

Although they've used other players in the Eredivisie, their starting XI in the two Champions League matches so far has been identical, with former Liverpool  benchwarmer Ryan Babel in a lone centre-forward role. Coach Frank de Boer could change that, using Siem de Jong as a central striker rather than as an attacking  midfielder - but Babel's pace would be a significant threat in behind.

 

Ajax could play Eyong Enoh as a combative midfielder alongside their primary holder Christian Poulsen, but De Boer will probably select both de Jong and Christian  Eriksen in their midfield triangle. Both are clever players and goal threats, and I think City will need two deep central midfielders to compete in that zone - with  Garcia and Rodwell out, that's a real problem.

 

I fancy Gareth Barry, Yaya Toure, Samir Nasri and James Milner to all start. The versatility of the latter three means Mancini could use various combinations - Barry  and Toure could be the deeper midfielders with Milner wide and Nasri central, or Barry and Milner could sit while Toure drives higher up the pitch, and Nasri drifts in  from the flank.

 

Going forward, Mancini has a range of options, especially after Edin Dzeko's double at the weekend. I think City need to attack Ajax right-back Ricardo van Rhijn, only  a regular since Gregory van der Wiel's move to PSG shortly before the close of the summer transfer window.

 

Mario Balotelli would be the obvious option for his pace, power and goalscoring threat - and Sergio Aguero could play as the primary forward. Again, there are options  here - Balotelli could go upfront with Aguero behind, for example, and we won't truly know City's formation and line-up until kick-off.

 

City's most obvious route to goal with be balls played over the top of the defence. Both Balotelli and Aguero have the pace to cause Ajax problems, and Aguero will be  more of a threat in this respect if Mancini uses Carlos Tevez behind him - Tevez drags defenders up the pitch, and Aguero exploits the space.

 

Despite some talented attackers, I'm not convinced Ajax are a great side, and City rightly start as favourites. Yet 1.77  seems slightly too short to me - I think about   1.95  would be more appropriate.

 

I can't turn down the chance to back Christian Poulsen to get in trouble with the referee. Miraculously, he's avoided a card so far this season, but I think the  increased tempo in this match might cause him to end up in the book. I'll take 4.0 .

 

Recommended bets:

Lay Manchester City at 1.77

Back Christian Poulsen to be shown a card at 4.0

 

(Source: Betfair)

 

Bet H E R E !

 

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