The Big Match Tactical View: Manchester City v Manchester United

9Dec 2012

Premier League

Second versus first in the Premier League - Michael Cox looks at the tactical battle.

Manchester City v Manchester United, Sunday 1:30, Sky Sports 1.

Match Odds: Manchester City 2.3, Manchester United 3.4, The Draw 3.65.

Manchester United travel to the Etihad Stadium as the league leaders, but face an extremely difficult task against champions Manchester City.

United's defensive record this season is abysmal for a side chasing the title - ten sides have conceded fewer goals than them, and although they've compensated for this by scoring more goals than any other side, they're facing the Premier League's most miserly defence.

City will be difficult to stop, as they offer four distinct attacking threats. There should be pace in behind the defence, possibly from Mario Balotelli, but more likely to be Sergio Aguero's incredible acceleration. That will be particularly dangerous because Roberto Mancini will also field a deep-lying number ten, which will be Carlos Tevez (if Aguero is the primary striker) or Aguero himself. The United defence will be stretched in both directions - tempted to move up the pitch and shut down the deeper player, but also wary of conceding too much space in behind.

Then there is the threat of Yaya Toure from deep. He's been a huge force in this game since netting the winner in last year's FA Cup semi-final, and Sir Alex Ferguson tried to nullify him in this fixture last season with the use of Park Ji-Sung, which backfired dramatically. Wayne Rooney will presumably be used in that role, dropping off the front to man-mark Toure, although his discipline in big games is questionable.

The fourth threat is considered the least dangerous, but was the key factor in last season's matches - and that is City's threat in wide zones. In the 6-1 win at Old Trafford, David Silva and James Milner crossed the pitch to overload United's full-backs on either side, while in the 1-0 win at the Etihad, Pablo Zabaleta and Samir Nasri linked up to dominate down the right.

United's wide players aren't protecting the defence efficiently this season, which is unusual in Sir Alex Ferguson's era, and neither Patrice Evra nor Rafael are entirely convincing - the Brazilian has generally played well this season, but had a shocker at Reading last weekend. Chris Smalling or Phil Jones could replace him, and play narrow against a wide midfielder likely to drift inside quickly.

Ferguson is without two wingers - Antonio Valencia and Nani - and Shinji Kagawa is unavailable too, which means Ashley Young and Danny Welbeck (or Rooney) would be the natural options in wide positions. But a more interesting alternative would be to field three central midfielders - three of Michael Carrick, Paul Scholes, Darren Fletcher and Tom Cleverley - in conjunction with Welbeck and Rooney dropping back from wide positions in a 4-3-3 / 4-5-1 shape.

That would give United numbers in the centre of the pitch, let Carrick stay deep and minimise the space between midfield and defence, while the wide players could pin back City's full-backs. It's not like Young is in particularly good form, and a deep, narrow shape could frustrate City.

With United's formation and line-up so uncertain, predicting the precise tactical battle is tricky - but it's unquestionable that David Silva's presence in the City side after injury would be a huge boost. His intricate through-balls would cause United's centre-backs problems, and by positioning himself between the lines, alongside Tevez, he'd expose United's lack of a defensive midfielder.

City are favourites for this game, and although neither have been convincing so far this campaign, United's tendency to concede the first goal - it's 15 in 23 games this season - can't be ignored. So frequently they've fought back, but against a side that concedes so few goals, it would be a tough task to repeat the trick. Therefore, backing City to lead after both halves makes sense, at around 4.0.