The Big Match Tactical View: Tottenham v Newcastle

9Feb 2013

England - Premier League

Michael Cox discusses Andre Villas-Boas and Alan Pardew's probable tactics ahead of Saturday's early kick-off.

 

 

Tottenham v Newcastle, Saturday 12:45pm, Sky Sports 2.


Match Odds: Tottenham 1.71, Newcastle 5.7, The Draw 4.1.

 

Jermain Defoe's extended injury absence has given Andre Villas-Boas a selection problem upfront - and how Tottenham get around their lack of natural firepower will be  crucial.

 

Villas-Boas' selections upfront this season so far have been interesting - he started off with Defoe as a lone striker, and continued to play Defoe solo despite  Emmanuel Adebayor appearing more suited for that role. Then, the Portuguese coach turned to a 4-4-2 system - and stuck with it, despite Adebayor's early red card at  the Emirates in the first match Tottenham played that formation.

 

That was a surprising move for a coach that believes in dominating the midfield with three players in that zone - although the way Defoe and Adebayor constantly  dropped deep, alternating positions and combining between the lines means playing without a true number nine won't necessarily be a huge problem. In a way, Clint  Dempsey and Lewis Holtby might play similar roles.

 

Adebayor could be involved if he makes it back from the Africa Cup of Nations in time, but it's hard to believe he'll start the game. Instead, expect Dempsey to play  upfront with Holtby darting around just behind him - this could cause the Newcastle centre-backs problems, as Fabricio Coloccini, Steven Taylor (or Mapou Yanga-Mbiwa)  are physical defenders that prefer battling against traditional strikers, rather than being dragged up the pitch and forced to turn and pick up runners.

 

Alan Pardew's main concern, however, will be Gareth Bale. His sheer speed means Pardew may instruct Newcastle to play with a deep defensive line, but Pardew should be  relatively confident new right-back Mathieu Debuchy will cope with the Welsh winger's powerful dribbles. Expect to see Jonas Gutierrez deployed on that side too,  helping to restrict Bale's space and push him into tight situations where he can't run directly towards goal.

 

Bale's in fantastic form at the moment, but it's worth considering that nine of his 11 league goals this season have come in away fixtures. He seems to prefer matches  when the opposition move high up the pitch and leave him space to run into, rather than contests at White Hart Lane when the opposition are more inclined to sit back  and defend. I'll lay Bale in the 'to score' market, at 2.6.

 

The game's other intriguing battle sees another French Newcastle signing, Moussa Sissoko, up against Scott Parker. Sissoko's impact against Chelsea last weekend was  spectacular, and although Parker hasn't particularly struggled since replacing Sandro in the holding role, he's still getting up to full fitness. With Yohan Cabaye  another threat, breaking forward from deep, Villas-Boas will probably ask Mousa Dembele to stay in positions close to Parker, keeping Spurs solid ahead of the defence.

 

My other recommended bet is in Corners Match Bet, where it's highly likely Tottenham will prevail. Last weekend against West Bromwich Albion they won 17 corners - a  Premier League record for this season - because they constantly attacked down the flanks against a side that played very narrow.

 

Something similar is likely here - Tottenham have averaged 10 corners in their last four home matches, while Newcastle have averaged four corners in theirs. Spurs will  dominate possession, play with greater width and take more shots - all factors that lead to corners. I'd be happy to back Spurs as low as 1.3 in the Corners Match Bet.

 

Overall, this match might be slow to get going. Newcastle will be terrified of Tottenham breaking quickly against them, which means they'll attack cautiously.  Meanwhile, Tottenham's lack of a true penalty box prowler means they might take a while to get the breakthrough against a deep defence, and with a plethora of new  options in his squad, Pardew is capable of frustrating Villas-Boas.

 

Recommended Bets

Lay Bale to score at 2.6

Back Tottenham in Corners Match Bet at 1.3

 

Bet HERE

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Keywords: The Big Match Tactical View, Tottenham, Newcastle

Source: Betfair

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