The Goalscorer Gamble: Why is Torres priced shorter than Lampard?

9Feb 2013

Betfair

 

Dan Fitch finds himself puzzled as to why Frank Lampard could possibly be bigger odds than Fernando Torres to score against Wigan. Best Bet: Back Lampard to score at  2.66.

 

There are many mysteries in life. How were the Pyramids built?  Why do so may planes disappear over the Bermuda Triangle? The musical success of Peter Andre.

 

Yet the great unexplained mystery that I can never get my head around is why Frank Lampard is always such a high price in goalscorer markets.

 

I know the answer, of course. It's because he's a midfielder rather than a striker, but Lampard is no ordinary midfielder. This is someone that scored over 20 goals  for five consecutive seasons.

 

Even this season, where he has been employed in a deeper role and doesn't quite have the legs to make his old lung-busting runs, Lampard has scored 10 goals in 17  Premier League games as he hones in on Bobby Tambling's club goalscorer record.

 

Lampard is of course Chelsea's penalty taker and they have won more spot kicks than any other team in the Premier League (8), while Wigan have conceded the most (7).  All of which makes the fact that Lampard is priced higher than Fernando Torres (Fernando Torres!) in the goalscorer markets, faintly insulting.

 

The England international, who scored a great goal against Brazil in midweek, is 7.2 to score first and 2.66 to score at any time. We're going for  the latter today.

 

Reputations can make a big difference in the pricing of goalscorer markets. Take La Liga for instance, where Cristiano Ronaldo, with 21 goals in 21 games is priced at  a predictably skinny 3.15 to score first for Real Madrid against Sevilla.

 

It's not surprising. Ronaldo has done it season after season, but if you want to look at a player on a similarly strong scoring-streak (yet with a slightly less  stellar reputation) then you'll find Radamel Falcao out at 4.0 to score first.

 

Falcao has 18 goals in 18 games this season. Just back in the Atletico Madrid team after injury, the Colombian striker has yet to score since his return. Back him to  open the scoring against Rayo Vallecano.

 

Another player who I consider underrated in the goalscorer markets is Bayern Munich's Thomas Muller. The Germany international was on target this week against France  and has been in form this season in the Bundesliga.

 

It's shaping up to be Muller's most prolific season in front of goal. He has scored 11 goals in 19 games and 15 in all competitions. The 2.1 for him to score  at home to Schalke, is much better value than the 1.55 available for Bayern's 14-goal top scorer Mario Mandzukic.

 

When it comes to last goalscorer markets, you'll often find them priced exactly the same as the market for opening scorer, with seemingly no analysis as to when teams  are more likely to score.

 

No team in the Premier League has scored more goals in the last 15 minutes of games than Reading. It's no wonder really when you consider that they are a struggling  team who very often have to chase games.

 

Adam Le Fondre has scored ten goals in 22 games this season and nine have been in the second-half. Yet there's not the discrepancy in his price for first and last  goalscorer that there should be.

 

Le Fondre is 9.8 to score first and 9.2 to score last. Given his record, the latter is obviously much better value against a Stoke side that have been  conceding plenty of late goals recently.

 

Over in Italy, last week I tipped Stephan El Shaarawy to score last, as he has a similar propensity to score late in games. Instead Mario Balotelli scored both goals,  but I don't think that this is a sign that El Shaarawy will be marginalised.

 

He's has been employed in a left-sided role all season, from where he has scored 15 league goals in 22 games. Back El Shaarawy to score at likely odds of 2.25  when the market gains more liquidity.

 

Best Bet: Back Lampard to score at any time at 2.66.

Recommended Bets:

Back Radamel Falacao to score first at 4.0.

Back Thomas Muller to score at 2.1.

Back Adam Le Fondre to score last at 9.2.

Back Stephan El Shaarawy to score at 2.25

 

Bet HERE

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Keywords: goalscorer, Torres, Lampard

Source: Betfair

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