Togo can record narrow victory over Burkina Faso

 

We're at the quarter-final stage of the African Cup of Nations and Jonathan Wilson has taken a closer look at the clash between the two teams that have already made their nations proud...

 

The most immediately attractive of the African Cup of Nations quarter-finals may be the clash in Rustenburg between the west Africa heavyweights of Nigeria and Ivory Coast (Ivory Coast 1.89 to win; Nigeria 4.6), the best attended will be the game in Durban between South Africa and Mali (South Africa 2.4; Mali an attractive 3.5), while a romantic's eye will be drawn by little Cape Verde's tilt at the mighty Ghana (Ghana 1.62 to win; Cape Verde 6.4).

 

From a betting point of view, though, the most intriguing quarter-final is that between Togo and Burkina Faso. Togo have never been to this stage before, while Burkina Faso's only appearance in the knockout stage came in 1998 when they hosted the tournament.

 

The Stallions' Belgian coach Paul Put described progress from the group as the "biggest achievement" in the country's football history. "Our first target was to do better than the other previous qualifications," he said. "We did that by winning the game against Ethiopia and drawing against Nigeria, so that was the first target." The 0-0 draw against Zambia then secured a place in the quarter-final.

 

Put admitted it "was not pretty" and that Burkina Faso had focused on how to stop Zambia in training. When a side needs only a draw, that is understandable. The question is whether they can rediscover an attacking edge when necessary. They hammered Ethiopia 4-0, picking them apart on the break despite having the goalkeeper Abdoulaye Soulama sent off with the score at 1-0.

 

The star of that game, though, was the Lorient forward Alain Traore, who had come off the bench to score the equaliser against Nigeria. He scored the first with a delicate touch and ferocious finish and then crashed in a second from 30 yards with the outside of his right foot.

 

Jonathan Pitroipa is an intelligent forward and can play as the front man, as he did against Zambia, but Burkina looked better when he had the strength, movement and striking power of Traore in front of him.

 

Traore was stretchered after eight minutes of the game against Zambia with a thigh injury and it seems unlikely he will recover. The Burkina team doctor rated his chances at "minus 10%" when asked; misinformation is not uncommon, but Traore's reaction to the injury suggested it was serious.

 

Without Traore, the in-form striker of the tournament, Burkina (2.7 to win) may not have the attacking threat to down Togo, who are the slight outsiders at 2.86.

 

The Sparrowhawks have conceded just three times in the tournament - and one of those a dubious penalty - and showed great resolve in the face of a sustained assault from Algeria. They also, though, have a neat and fluid midfield.

 

Essentially their game plan is to get the ball to Emmanuel Adebayor, who holds it up and waits for support from Floyd Ayita and Serge Gakpe on the flanks and the highly impressive Komlan Amewou breaking from midfield.

 

"It's a special moment for my country," said Adebayor after the game. "From tomorrow morning work hard and focus on Burkina Faso, but the most important thing at the moment is to enjoy it."

 

Teams playing without pressure or expectation are dangerous. Having exceeded their goals, will they have the fight in the final minutes if they have to chase down a goal? Or will the lack of stress relax the players and lead them to greater heights?

 

Both held on in the face of a late siege to get draws in their final group game but will that same focus and determination be there when, paradoxically, the stakes are higher but the penalty for losing is less?

 

Togo scored four and conceded two in the group; Burkina scored five and conceded one. Factor in the dreadful sandy pitch at the Mbombela that makes fluent, passing football all but impossible and there are unlikely to be too many goals. Under 2.5 Goals at 1.55 is too short to be attractive but it may be worth Dutching a couple of low-scoring Correct Score bets.

 

Recommended Bet

Back Togo to win 1-0 7.4 and 2-0 15.0

 

Bet HERE

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